西澳以北四级强热带气旋“埃罗尔”(29U/29S.Errol) - 构建针眼，迅猛加强 - BoM:100KT JTWC:140KT

yhh

编扰资讯

96P INVEST 250408 1200 10.0S 137.0E SHEM 15 1009
96P INVEST 250408 1200 8.8S 135.2E SHEM 15 1009

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ABIO10 PGTW 090000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/090000Z-091800ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 8.7S
134.7E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM NORTHEAST OF DARWIN. AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 082050Z SSMIS F17
91GHZ DEPICT A BROAD AND DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
FLARING CONVECTION DISLOCATED TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THAT 96P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WEAK UPPER
LEVEL RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

renzhetegong

部分数值预报成员支持高强度

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ABIO10 PGTW 091200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/091200Z-091800ZAPR2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
...
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.7S 134.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10S 132.8E, APPROXIMATELY 164 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF A DISORGANIZED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
090928Z SSMIS F17 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED WEAK LOW-LEVEL
BANDING WITHIN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AT MCCLUER ISLAND ARE REPORTING AROUND 20 KTS FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST.  ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 96P IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND GOOD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE GFS SHOWS A QUICK INTENSIFICATION TREND, ATTAINING
TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH WITHIN 48 HOURS WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MORE
GRADUAL TREND. MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, NEAR
THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA AS THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS.  MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

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Tropical Low 29U
Moderate risk of tropical low (29U) developing into a tropical cyclone from Friday.

• A tropical low (29U) should form in the Arafura Sea tonight or on Thursday morning, and move in a westerly direction into the Timor Sea later in the week.
• From Thursday there is a Low chance of the system being a tropical cyclone, and this increases to a Moderate chance from Friday, most likely over waters north of the Kimberley.
• The system will most likely remain to the north of the Australian coastline over the next 7 days.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 08:34 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 10:00 am

Tomorrow 10:00 pm

Fri 11  Apr 10:00 am

Fri 11  Apr 10:00 pm

Sat 12  Apr 10:00 am

Sat 12  Apr 10:00 pm

Sun 13  Apr 10:00 am

Sun 13  Apr 10:00 pm

Mon 14  Apr 10:00 am

Mon 14  Apr 10:00 pm

Tue 15  Apr 10:00 am

Tue 15  Apr 10:00 pm

Wed 16  Apr 10:00 am

Wed 16  Apr 10:00 pm

Tropical Low 29U

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

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Tropical Low 29U
High risk of tropical low (29U) developing into a tropical cyclone next week.

• A tropical low (29U) is forming in the Arafura Sea, with a Moderate chance of development from Friday, most likely while it's over waters north to northwest of Darwin.
• The system is expected to move southwest into the Timor Sea over the weekend, then shift west-southwest early next week.
• As it moves over waters north of the Kimberley, the chance of tropical cyclone development increases to High early next week.
• Coastal communities in the Kimberley should keep up to date with the latest forecasts.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 11:31 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 12  Apr 12:00 am

Sat 12  Apr 12:00 pm

Sun 13  Apr 12:00 am

Sun 13  Apr 12:00 pm

Mon 14  Apr 12:00 am

Mon 14  Apr 12:00 pm

Tue 15  Apr 12:00 am

Tue 15  Apr 12:00 pm

Wed 16  Apr 12:00 am

Wed 16  Apr 12:00 pm

Thu 17  Apr 12:00 am

Tropical Low 29U

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

55 (High)

55 (High)

60 (High)

60 (High)

60 (High)

55 (High)

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Tropical Low 29U
High risk of tropical low (29U) developing into a tropical cyclone from Sunday.

• A tropical low (29U) has formed in the Arafura Sea, with a Moderate chance of development from Friday, most likely while it's over waters north to northwest of Darwin.
• The system is expected to move southwest into the Timor Sea over the weekend, and the chance of tropical cyclone development increases to High from Sunday as 29U moves over waters north of the Kimberley.
• There is a risk of coastal impacts to the northwest Kimberley over the weekend. Coastal communities in the Kimberley should keep up to date with the latest forecasts.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 08:21 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 12  Apr 12:00 am

Sat 12  Apr 12:00 pm

Sun 13  Apr 12:00 am

Sun 13  Apr 12:00 pm

Mon 14  Apr 12:00 am

Mon 14  Apr 12:00 pm

Tue 15  Apr 12:00 am

Tue 15  Apr 12:00 pm

Wed 16  Apr 12:00 am

Wed 16  Apr 12:00 pm

Thu 17  Apr 12:00 am

Thu 17  Apr 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 29U

10 (Low)

30 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

55 (High)

60 (High)

60 (High)

60 (High)

60 (High)

60 (High)

60 (High)

yhh

WTXS21 PGTW 101400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.3S 130.6E TO 12.5S 127.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 101330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.7S 130.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
8.8S 131.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7S 130.3E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM NORTH
OF DARWIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH INCREASING CORE
CONVECTION. A 100915Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS FORMATIVE
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. MULTIPLE SCATTEROMETER
PASSES INDICATE A DEFINED CIRCULATION, WITH 20-25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OF 20-25 KNOTS OFFSET BY GOOD WESTWARD UPPER-
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) OF 29-30 C. GLOBAL
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES INDICATE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
111400Z.//
NNNN

renzhetegong

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1910 UTC 10/04/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 8.8S
Longitude: 129.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (243 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (8 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/18HRS  STT: D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 60 nm (110 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  11/0000:  9.1S 129.3E:     040 (080):  030  (055): 1000
+12:  11/0600:  9.7S 129.0E:     050 (095):  030  (055): 1001
+18:  11/1200: 10.4S 128.5E:     060 (110):  035  (065):  999
+24:  11/1800: 11.0S 128.1E:     065 (120):  035  (065):  999
+36:  12/0600: 12.2S 127.1E:     085 (155):  035  (065):  999
+48:  12/1800: 13.1S 125.8E:     105 (195):  040  (075):  996
+60:  13/0600: 13.7S 124.5E:     135 (250):  045  (085):  993
+72:  13/1800: 14.1S 123.4E:     150 (280):  050  (095):  989
+96:  14/1800: 14.7S 121.6E:     195 (360):  070  (130):  974
+120: 15/1800: 14.8S 119.8E:     240 (440):  080  (150):  966
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 29U lies over the far northern Timor Sea and has been drifting
generally westward. Pulses of deep convection have maintained a fluctuating CDO
to the SW of the estimated LLCC. There is only fair confidence in the centre
position, which has been biased towards a recent OSCAT pass at 1510 UTC.  

Dvorak analysis is based on curved band (0.4 to 0.45 wrap) and shear (estimated
LLCC less than half a degree from CDO) patterns averaged over 3 hours, giving
DTs of 2.5-3.0 with neither pattern clear cut. Final T limited to 2.0 by
constraints, and CI is likewise 2.0. Intensity set at 30 knots extrapolating
from recent scatterometry, chiefly ASCAT 1243 UTC, allowing for a slight
improvement to the pattern since that time.

The system lies near a strong gradient of deep layer shear near the western
periphery of an upper anticyclone, with the current satellite signature
suggesting NE'ly shear is impacting the vertical stacking of the circulation.
Along the forecast track to the southwest, conditions should improve as the
system enters a lower shear channel. Deep tropical moisture and high SSTs
(30-31C) are otherwise in place, and a shortwave upper trough to the SW is
improving poleward outflow and upper divergence.  Slow development is forecast
in the short term, with the effects of shear likely to continue to be felt, and
only limited low level forcing on the northern side. In the medium term
development may become more rapid as the system moves into lower deep layer
shear. It should be noted that 29U is a small system and thus prone to rapid
intensity fluctuations as it responds quickly to positive and negative changes
in the environment. It may therefore strengthen more rapidly than forecast if
conditions improve.  

A mid-level ridge to the southwest will be the dominant influence on the motion
of 29U over the coming week and will steer the system steadily to the west. In
the shorter term, a mid-level trough extending from eastern Australia will
introduce a southward component to the motion and thus 29U will move southwest
over the weekend. This may bring it close to the Kimberley coast late Saturday
or on Sunday. From about Monday, the influence of the trough will wane and
movement will become more WSW or westward. Around mid-next week, an upper
trough is expected to amplify over southwest WA which may steer the system
towards the WA coast, however there is high uncertainty at this lead time.   


Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/0130 UTC

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:40 am WST on Friday 11 April 2025

A Tropical Low (29U) was located at 2:00 am AWST near 8.8S 129.6E, that is 425
km north northwest of Darwin and 305 km north northwest of Pirlangimpi, and
moving west southwest at 8 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Low 29U is located to the north-northwest of Darwin, and is forecast
to move southwest, across the Timor Sea over the next few days, while remaining
off the western Top End coast.   

29U is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on the weekend with
increasing risk of coastal impacts for the Kimberley coast from late Saturday.  

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 am AWST Friday 11 April.

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IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:56 am WST on Friday 11 April 2025

A Tropical Low (29U) was located at 8:00 am AWST near 8.7S 129.6E, that is 435
km north northwest of Darwin and 315 km north northwest of Pirlangimpi, and
slow moving.

Tropical Cyclone Advices [IDW24100] are current for a developing tropical low
located to the north-northwest of Darwin.
Please refer to the latest Advice.

No further Information Bulletins will be issued.

---

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0117 UTC 11/04/2025
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 8.7S
Longitude: 129.6E
Location Accuracy: within 30nm (55 km)
Movement Towards: north (000 deg)
Speed of Movement: 1 knots (2 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 1000 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds:   nm (  km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1005 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 90 nm (165 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  11/0600:  9.1S 129.4E:     040 (080):  030  (055):  999
+12:  11/1200:  9.7S 129.0E:     050 (095):  035  (065):  998
+18:  11/1800: 10.4S 128.4E:     060 (110):  035  (065):  998
+24:  12/0000: 11.1S 127.9E:     065 (120):  035  (065):  998
+36:  12/1200: 12.2S 126.8E:     085 (155):  040  (075):  995
+48:  13/0000: 12.9S 125.5E:     110 (205):  045  (085):  992
+60:  13/1200: 13.2S 124.3E:     135 (255):  050  (095):  988
+72:  14/0000: 13.6S 123.3E:     150 (275):  055  (100):  985
+96:  15/0000: 13.8S 121.9E:     195 (365):  070  (130):  972
+120: 16/0000: 14.1S 120.3E:     240 (440):  085  (155):  960
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 29U lies over the far northern Timor Sea and is drifting slowly to
the south southwest. Though the centre has been at times difficult to locate
with a fluctuating CDO near and just to the southwest of the LLCC . There is
only fair confidence in the centre position, which has been based on animated
visible imagery with some assistance from recent microwave passes (GMI at 2236
and SSMIS at 2127).  

Dvorak analysis is based on curved band pattern (0.3 to 0.4 wrap) averaged over
3 hours, giving DTs of 2.0 to 3.5. MET/PAT are 2.0 based on a D trend. Final
and CI 2.0. Intensity set at 30 knots extrapolating from overnight
scatterometry, chiefly ASCAT 1243 UTC, allowing for a slight improvement to the
pattern since that time.

The system lies near a strong gradient of deep layer shear near the western
periphery of an upper anticyclone, with the current satellite signature
suggesting NE'ly shear is impacting the vertical stacking of the circulation.
Along the forecast track to the southwest, conditions should improve as the
system enters a lower shear channel. Deep tropical moisture and high SSTs
(30-31C) are otherwise in place, and a shortwave upper trough to the SW is
improving poleward outflow and upper divergence.  Slow development is forecast
in the short term, with the effects of shear likely to continue to be felt, and
only limited low level forcing on the northern side. In the medium term
development may become more rapid as the system moves into lower deep layer
shear. It should be noted that 29U is a small system and thus prone to rapid
intensity fluctuations as it responds quickly to positive and negative changes
in the environment. It may therefore strengthen more rapidly than forecast and
potentially become stronger than forecast if conditions improve.  

A mid-level ridge to the southwest will be the dominant influence on the motion
of 29U over the coming week and will steer the system steadily to the west. In
the shorter term, a mid-level trough extending from eastern Australia will
introduce a southward component to the motion and thus 29U will move southwest
over the weekend. This may bring it close to the Kimberley coast late Saturday
or on Sunday. From about Monday, the influence of the trough will wane and
movement will become more WSW or westward. Around mid-next week, another upper
trough is expected to amplify over southwest WA which may steer the system
towards the WA coast, however there is high uncertainty at this lead time.   

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 11/0730 UTC.

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am April 11	tropical low	8.7S	129.6E	55
+6hr	2 pm April 11	tropical low	9.1S	129.4E	80
+12hr	8 pm April 11	tropical low	9.7S	129.0E	95
+18hr	2 am April 12	tropical low	10.4S	128.4E	110
+24hr	8 am April 12	tropical low	11.1S	127.9E	120
+36hr	8 pm April 12	1	12.2S	126.8E	155
+48hr	8 am April 13	1	12.9S	125.5E	205
+60hr	8 pm April 13	2	13.2S	124.3E	255
+72hr	8 am April 14	2	13.6S	123.3E	275

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 am April 11	tropical low	8.7S	129.6E	55
+6hr	4 pm April 11	tropical low	9.1S	129.4E	80
+12hr	10 pm April 11	tropical low	9.7S	129.0E	95
+18hr	4 am April 12	tropical low	10.4S	128.4E	110
+24hr	10 am April 12	tropical low	11.1S	127.9E	120
+36hr	10 pm April 12	1	12.2S	126.8E	155
+48hr	10 am April 13	1	12.9S	125.5E	205
+60hr	10 pm April 13	2	13.2S	124.3E	255
+72hr	10 am April 14	2	13.6S	123.3E	275