马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 120652
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/12 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.8 S / 46.3 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY SIX DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 45 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 44.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 15.7 S / 42.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 16.9 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 19.5 S / 40.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 95 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/15 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/16 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 43.9 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 28.3 S / 48.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 155 SW: 260 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 85 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, AFTER LEAVING MADAGASCAR AND RETURNING TO THE
VERY WARM WATERS OF THE MAOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, DIKELEDI HAS
INTENSIFIED, AS SHOWN IN THE 0250Z F-16 MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE SAR RCM3
IMAGE FROM 0221Z ESTIMATES MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 55 KT IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. WITH A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM IS SET TO GRADUALLY TILT ITS
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST AND THEN THE SOUTH-WEST OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT WILL THEN TURN SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE HIGHLY DISPERSED FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. IN
FACT, DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA,
DIKELEDI'S TRACK COULD IMPACT THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE PROVINCE
OF NAMPULA ON MONDAY, OR PASS WELL INTO THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL.
SIMILARLY, IN THE LONGER TERM, THE PREFERRED SCENARIO REMAINS A PASSAGE
TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, BUT A SCENARIO PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF GRANDE TERRE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, FAVOURING A
TRACK ALONG THE CENTRE OF THE CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL BENEFIT FROM FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION, WITH RAPIDLY DECREASING SHEAR. THERE IS
STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF THE
SYSTEM, AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON ITS FINAL TRACK. INDEED, WITH A CENTRAL
TRACK LIKE THE ONE PROPOSED BY THE RSMC, THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY
FAR FROM THE AFRICAN COAST AND WILL NOT BE DISTURBED BY LAND TO
INTENSIFY TO THE STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (LOW SHEAR,
EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT).
HOWEVER, IF THERE IS INTERACTION WITH AFRICAN COASTS, INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE SLOWER. IN ADDITION, A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL
DURING ITS MATURE PHASE COULD CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

MADAGASCAR:
- GALE EXTENDING TO CAPE SAINT-ANDRE ALONG MAHAJANGA PROVINCE UNTIL
THIS EVENING, THEN POSSIBLE EXTENSION NEXT WEEK SOUTH OF CAPE
SAINT-ANDRE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
- HEAVY RAINS UNDERWAY OVER ANTSIRANANA PROVINCE. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 100MM POSSIBLE BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
DAY. HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE POSSIBLE
TODAY. 100MM CUMULATIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY.

MAYOTTE :
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.
- HEAVY RAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY UNDER THE PERIPHERAL BANDS. TOTAL
RAINFALL OVER 100-150 MM IN 12 HOURS POSSIBLE.

COMOROS :
- HEAVY RAIN TODAY AROUND THE SYSTEM. CUMULUS CLOSE TO 100 MM IN 24H
LOCALLY, 150-200 MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE):
- GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. REDUCED RISK OF STORM-FORCE WINDS ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY. 100-200 MM IN 24H POSSIBLE LOCALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METRES POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING.

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 120900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 006 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 006   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   120600Z --- NEAR 13.6S 46.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.6S 46.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   121800Z --- 14.5S 44.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 15.3S 42.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 16.5S 41.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 17.6S 40.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   150600Z --- 21.1S 40.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 26.1S 42.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 29.8S 46.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
120900Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 45.7E.
12JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
326 NM EAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
120600Z IS 986 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 27
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z AND 130900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 120900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 006//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.6S 46.2E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 65 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 326 NM EAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW-LEVEL
    
18. BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
    
19. OBSCURED BY AN IRREGULARLY SHAPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST
    
20. CONVECTION. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY REVEALS STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH
    
21. NO DISCRETE CLOUD EDGES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
    
22. CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 120548Z GPM GMI 89HBT MICROWAVE IMAGE
    
23. REVEALING IRREGULAR AND ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION WHICH PARTIALLY
    
24. EXPOSES THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDING TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
    
25. INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN
    
26. EARLIER 120221Z RCM-3 SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR) IMAGE
    
27. REVEALING 60KTS OF WIND, AND A 120620Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE
    
28. DEPICITNG 65KTS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE LLCC.
    
29. 
    
30. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE
    
31. 
    
32. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH
    
33. 
    
34. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
35.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
36.    KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
37.    DEMS: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
38.    CIMSS ADT: 59 KTS AT 120600Z
    
39.    CIMSS AIDT: 58 KTS AT 120600Z
    
40.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 52 KTS AT 120600Z
    
41. 
    
42. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
    
43.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
44.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
45.    OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
    
46. 
    
47. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
48.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
49.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
50.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
51. 
    
52. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
53. 
    
54. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
55. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
56. 
    
57. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 07S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
    
58. SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
    
59. WHILE APPROACHING THE STR AXIS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL ALTER
    
60. COURSE SOUTHEASTWARD, CONTINUING TO ROUND THE RIDGE. THE INTENSITY
    
61. OF TC 07S WILL STAGNATE FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS WHILE AN UPPER-LEVEL
    
62. CYCLONE TO THE SOUTH MOVES OUTBOUND EASTWARD. AN UPPER-LEVEL
    
63. ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE IN, ALLOWING FOR A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
    
64. TO FORM BETWEEN TAU 24-72, IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE.
    
65. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL REMAIN LOW TO MODERATE UNTIL TAU 72.
    
66. THE INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS WILL
    
67. LEAD TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100KTS BY TAU 72. BY TAU 96, AN
    
68. UPPER-LEVEL JET MAXIMUM WILL BEGIN TO INDUCE HIGH VERTICAL WIND
    
69. SHEAR AND BAROCLINIC FORCING, INITIATING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.
    
70. WEAKENING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST AND
    
71. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL COMPLETE.
    
72. 
    
73. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT
    
74. AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK CLOSELY TO THE COAST OF
    
75. MOZAMBIQUE WITHIN THE FIRST 48 HOURS, BUT GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER AS
    
76. TO WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK OVER LAND OR NOT. GFS DEPICTS THE
    
77. SYSTEM SKIRTING THE COAST OF MOZAMBIQUE, BUT ECMWF KEEPS TC 07S
    
78. OVER WATER. HOWEVER, THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR BOTH GEFS AND EC-EPS
    
79. DEPICT MOST MEMBERS KEEPING THE SYSTEM OVER WATER. THE INTENSITY
    
80. GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON WHETHER OR NOT THE TRACK MOVES OVER
    
81. LAND OR NOT, THUS GFS AND HWRF GUIDANCE DEPICT A SLOWER RATE OF
    
82. INTENSIFICATION WHILE COAMPS-TC AND HAFS-A INDICATE RAPID
    
83. INTENSIFICATION WITHIN THE FIRST 72 HOURS.
    
84. 
    
85. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
86.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
87.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
88.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
    
89.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
90. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：王慧  签发：钱奇峰  2025 年 01 月 12 日 18 时
“迪克莱迪”向西偏南方向移动

时       间：12日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬13.6度、东经46.2度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：12级（33米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：983百帕

参考位置：科摩罗群岛东偏南方向约385公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”的强度由减弱再增强到12级

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐加强。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月12日14时00分）

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 121248
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/12 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 44.7 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 19 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 270 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/13 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 43.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 41.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 30

48H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 18.1 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 19.9 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 285 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 41.0 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 260 SW: 140 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 155 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/16 12 UTC: 27.2 S / 43.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2025/01/17 12 UTC: 30.6 S / 46.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 215 SW: 305 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY.
HOWEVER, THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WIND
ESTIMATES OF THE PREVIOUS BULLETIN HAVE PROBABLY BEEN OVERESTIMATED.
THE 0620Z ASCAT PASS MEASURES WINDS AT 35-40KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE FROM 1037Z SHOWS A CONVECTIVE
CONFIGURATION WITH NO CLEAR RING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES SUGGEST
SCATTERED ESTIMATES BETWEEN 45 AND 55 KT. THE RSMC SUGGESTS AN
ESTIMATE OF AROUND 50 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, LITTLE HAS CHANGED. WITH A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, THE SYSTEM IS SET TO GRADUALLY TILT ITS
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTH-WEST AND THEN THE SOUTH-WEST OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. IT WILL THEN TURN SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON
TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE HIGHLY DISPERSED FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. IN
FACT, DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA,
DIKELEDI'S TRACK COULD IMPACT THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE PROVINCE
OF NAMPULA ON MONDAY, OR PASS WELL INTO THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL.
SIMILARLY, IN THE LONGER TERM, THE PREFERRED SCENARIO REMAINS A PASSAGE
TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, BUT A SCENARIO PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN
TIP OF GRANDE TERRE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, FAVOURING A
TRACK ALONG THE CENTRE OF THE CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL BENEFIT FROM FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION, AS THE SHEAR DROPS. THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM INTENSITY, AS THIS
WILL DEPEND ON ITS FINAL TRACK. IN FACT, WITH A CENTRAL TRAJECTORY LIKE
THE ONE PROPOSED BY THE RSMC, THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY FAR FROM
THE AFRICAN COAST AND WILL NOT BE DISTURBED BY LAND TO INTENSIFY TO THE
STAGE OF AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (LOW SHEAR, EXCELLENT ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE, EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT). HOWEVER, IF THERE IS
INTERACTION WITH AFRICAN COASTS, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SLOWER. IN
ADDITION, A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL DURING ITS MATURE
PHASE COULD CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR :
- GALE EXTENDING TO CAP SAINT-ANDRE ALONG MAHAJANGA PROVINCE UNTIL
THIS EVENING .
- HEAVY RAINS ALONG THE COAST OF MAHAJANGA PROVINCE POSSIBLE TODAY.
100MM CUMULATIVE RAINFALL POSSIBLE OVER THE DAY.

MAYOTTE :
- GALE FORCE WINDS STILL LIKELY ON THE ISLAND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
- HEAVY RAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY UNDER THE PERIPHERAL BANDS.
- AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY, THE WIND AND RISK OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD EASE TOMORROW AND DEFINITIVELY ON TUESDAY.

COMOROS:
- THE ISLANDS SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM'S PERIPHERY.
- HEAVY RAINS TODAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. CUMULATIVE
RAINS CLOSE TO 100 MM IN 24H LOCALLY, 150-200 MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. RISK OF STORM-FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY. 100-150 MM IN 24H. LOCALLY POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METRES POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) FROM WEDNESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY. 100-150 MM IN 24H.
- GALES POSSIBLE, STORM FORCE WINDS NOT EXCLUDED
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 121830
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/12 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.5 S / 44.1 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 981 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 305 SE: 270 SW: 120 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 75 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/13 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 41.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2025/01/13 18 UTC: 15.8 S / 40.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 30 NW: 30

36H: 2025/01/14 06 UTC: 17.0 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 250 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 155 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 30 NW: 30

48H: 2025/01/14 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 39.9 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 250 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 85 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

60H: 2025/01/15 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 325 SE: 260 SW: 140 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 175 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/15 18 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.5 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 280 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 28.0 S / 43.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

120H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 31.3 S / 47.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 220 SW: 280 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 50 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 40 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY,
WITH THE SYSTEM ADOPTING A CENTER-IN-MASS PATTERN. THE F16 MICROWAVE
IMAGE FROM 1518Z SHOWS A CONVECTIVE CONFIGURATION WITH NO CLEAR RING.
DVORAK'S ANALYSIS ESTIMATES THE INTENSITY AT 65KT, BUT OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES SUGGEST ESTIMATES OF THE ORDER OF 50 KT. THE RSMC SUGGESTS
AN ESTIMATE OF AROUND 60 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE HEADING
WEST-SOUTHWEST, BEFORE CURVING TOWARDS THE MOZAMBICAN COAST ON
MONDAY. HOWEVER, A LANDING CANNOT BE EXCLUDED. IT WILL THEN TURN
SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE HIGHLY DISPERSED
FROM MONDAY ONWARDS. IN FACT, DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE
TROUGH OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, DIKELEDI'S TRACK COULD IMPACT THE
MOZAMBIQUE COAST OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA ON MONDAY, OR PASS WELL
INTO THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL. SIMILARLY, IN THE LONGER TERM, THE
PREFERRED SCENARIO REMAINS A PASSAGE TO THE SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, BUT
A SCENARIO PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF GRANDE TERRE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT
GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, FAVOURING A TRACK ALONG THE CENTRE OF THE
CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL BENEFIT FROM FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION, AS THE SHEAR DROPS AND
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
AS TO THE SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM INTENSITY, AS THIS WILL DEPEND ON ITS
FINAL TRACK. IN FACT, WITH A CENTRAL TRAJECTORY LIKE THE ONE PROPOSED
BY THE RSMC, THE SYSTEM REMAINS RELATIVELY FAR FROM THE AFRICAN COAST
AND WILL NOT BE DISTURBED BY LAND TO INTENSIFY TO THE STAGE OF AN
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE (LOW SHEAR, EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE,
EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT). HOWEVER, IF THERE IS INTERACTION
WITH AFRICAN COASTS, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE SLOWER. IN ADDITION, A
POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL DURING ITS MATURE PHASE COULD
CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR :
- GALE EXTENDING TO CAP SAINT-ANDRE ALONG MAHAJANGA PROVINCE STILL
POSSIBLE IN THE NIGHT.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (50-80MM) ALONG THE COAST OF
MAHAJANGA PROVINCE AND OVER THE ANTSIRANANA RELIEF.

MAYOTTE :
- HEAVY RAIN UNTIL THE END OF THE NIGHT (100-120MM/24H) UNDER THE
PERIPHERAL BANDS.
- AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY, THE WIND AND RISK OF HEAVY RAIN
SHOULD EASE TOMORROW AND DEFINITIVELY ON TUESDAY.

COMOROS:
- THE ISLANDS SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM'S
PERIPHERY.
- HEAVY RAINS TODAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. CUMULATIVE
RAINS CLOSE TO 100 MM IN 24H LOCALLY, 150-200 MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE) :
- GALE FORCE WINDS LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO THE
FOLLOWING NIGHT. RISK OF STORM-FORCE OR HURRICANE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY. 150-200 MM IN 24H. LOCALLY
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF UP TO 4 METRES POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) FROM WEDNESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY. 100-150 MM IN 24H.
- GALES POSSIBLE, STORM FORCE WINDS NOT EXCLUDED
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE=

ygsj24

WTXS31 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   121800Z --- NEAR 14.4S 43.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4S 43.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   130600Z --- 15.3S 42.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   131800Z --- 16.1S 40.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   140600Z --- 17.4S 40.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   141800Z --- 19.3S 40.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   151800Z --- 24.0S 41.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 28.3S 44.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 32.0S 51.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6S 43.4E.
12JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
186 NM EAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
121800Z IS 970 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z AND 132100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 122100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 007//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 14.4S 43.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 70 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 186 NM EAST OF NACALA, MOZAMBIQUE
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 28 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
    
18. PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION WITH OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS OBSCURING
    
19. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND A BAND OF FLARING CONVECTION
    
20. FORMING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW IS
    
21. OBSERVED PRIMARILY IN THE POLEWARD DIRECTION BUT IS IMPLICATIVE OF
    
22. PRESSURE ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE IN THE PRESENCE OF SHEAR.
    
23. EXTRAPOLATION OF A DEFINED CENTRAL EYE FEATURE ON A 121521Z RCM-3
    
24. SYNTHETIC APERTURE RADAR (SAR) NRCS IMAGE WAS USED IN CONJUNCTION
    
25. WITH ANIMATED EIR IMAGERY TO ASSESS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH
    
26. CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM
    
27. CONFIDENCE BASED ON A BLEND OF AGENCY SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
    
28. ALONG WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SAR DATA, WHICH WERE APPROXIMATELY 15
    
29. KTS HIGHER THAN THE RANGE OF OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
    
32. 
    
33. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
    
34. SOUTHEAST
    
35. 
    
36. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
37.    PGTW: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
38.    KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
39.    DEMS: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
40.    FMEE: T4.5 - 77 KTS
    
41.    CIMSS ADT: 55 KTS AT 121800Z
    
42. 
    
43. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
44.    VWS: 20-25 KTS
    
45.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
46.    OUTFLOW: STRONG RADIAL
    
47. 
    
48. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
49.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
50.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
51.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
52. 
    
53. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
54. 
    
55. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
56. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
57. 
    
58. FORECAST DISCUSSION: THE GENERAL TRACK WILL BEGIN TO CURVE AROUND
    
59. THE STR AXIS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 36 AND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
    
60. LARGELY OVER THE CHANNEL WITH MINIMAL LAND INTERACTION, ALTHOUGH
    
61. THIS REMAINS ONE OF THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST. DUE
    
62. TO THE STRONG EXHAUST CURRENTLY OBSERVED, INTENSIFICATION IS
    
63. PREDICTED AT A GRADUAL PACE AND MAY INCREASE AT A BETTER RATE WITH
    
64. AN IMPROVEMENT IN THE EQUATORWARD EXHAUST BETWEEN TAU 12-72. AFTER
    
65. ROUNDING THE STR AXIS, TRACK SPEEDS WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
    
66. AND EVENTUALLY BEGIN THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
    
67. NEAR TAU 96. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE BY
    
68. TAU 120.
    
69. 
    
70. MODEL DISCUSSION: TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH
    
71. THE EXCEPTION OF GFS-BASED AIDS TAKING THE TRACK FURTHER WEST
    
72. TOWARDS THE MOZAMBIQUE COAST. THE JTWC FORECAST CLOSELY MATCHES
    
73. THAT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS WEIGHTED TOWARDS THE ECMWF
    
74. GUIDANCE, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY
    
75. AIDS ARE DIVERGENT ON THE EXPECTED TRENDS DUE TO TRACK
    
76. UNCERTAINTIES AND POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF LAND INTERACTION
    
77. ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE VORTEX. THEREFORE, IN LINE WITH THE JTWC
    
78. FORECAST TRACK THROUGH THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND DUE TO RI GUIDES
    
79. NOW TRIGGERING, THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHER THAN THAT OF THE
    
80. CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
    
81. 
    
82. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
83.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
84.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
85.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: LOW
    
86.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
    
87. NNNN

复制代码

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 130216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 42.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE, WITH
THE SYSTEM ADOPTING A SHEARED PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE GCOM MICROWAVE
PICTURE FROM 2256Z SHOWS A BETTER-LOOKING RING THAN BEFORE. DVORAK'S
ANALYSIS ESTIMATES THE INTENSITY AT 65KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
SOME OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. HOWEVER, THE ASCAT PASS AT 1852Z MEASURES
WINDS OF ONLY 45KT. THE SAR AT 1521Z MEASURES AN INTENSITY OF 60KT.
THE RSMC THEREFORE PROPOSES AN ESTIMATE OF 60 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS SET TO CONTINUE ITS WEST-SOUTH-WEST
TRAJECTORY, BEFORE CURVING AROUND THE MOZAMBICAN COAST ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER, A LANDING CANNOT BE EXCLUDED. IT WILL THEN TURN SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE HIGHLY DISPERSED FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS. IN FACT, DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, DIKELEDI'S TRACK COULD IMPACT THE MOZAMBIQUE
COAST OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA ON MONDAY, THIS IS THE SCENARIO
WE'VE CHOSEN, OR PASS WELL INTO THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL. SIMILARLY,
IN THE LONGER TERM, THE PREFERRED SCENARIO REMAINS A PASSAGE TO THE
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, BUT A SCENARIO PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
GRANDE TERRE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, FAVOURING A TRACK ALONG THE
CENTRE OF THE CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL BENEFIT FROM FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION, WITH DECREASING WIND
SHEAR AND WARM WATERS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM INTENSITY, SINCE THIS WILL DEPEND ON ITS FINAL
TRACK, BUT WITH THE SCENARIO CHOSEN, DIKELEDI SHOULD BRUSH UP AGAINST
MOZAMBIQUE AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN
INTENSITY. AFTER THAT, ITS TRACK LEAVES THE AFRICAN COAST AND IT
SHOULD BENEFIT FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (LOW SHEAR,
EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT) TO
INTENSIFY INTO AN INTENSE OR EVEN VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER, IF THERE IS INTERACTION WITH AFRICAN COASTS, INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE SLOWER. IN ADDITION, A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL
DURING ITS MATURE PHASE COULD CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR :
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (50-100MM) ALONG THE COAST OF
MAHAJANGA PROVINCE AND OVER THE ANTSIRANANA RELIEF.

MAYOTTE :
- INTENSE RAIN STILL POSSIBLE (TOTALS OF AROUND 50MM) UNDER THE
PERIPHERAL BANDS.
- AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY, THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
DIMINISH TOMORROW AND DEFINITIVELY ON TUESDAY..

COMOROS:
- THE ISLANDS SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM'S
PERIPHERY.
- HEAVY RAINS TODAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. CUMULATIVE
RAINS CLOSE TO 100 MM IN 24H LOCALLY, 150-200 MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE) :
- RISK OF STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAIN POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
150-200MM OR EVEN 250MM IN 24 HOURS LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) FROM WEDNESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY. 100-150 MM IN 24H.
- GALES POSSIBLE, STORM FORCE WINDS NOT EXCLUDED
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE

JUAN DE NOVA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM CUMULATIVE).
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS POSSIBLE.
- GALE POSSIBLE.

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM CUMULATIVE).
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS POSSIBLE.
- GALE TO STORM POSSIBLE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOT EXCLUDED.=

---

WTIO30 FMEE 130237 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/5/20242025
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/13 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.7 S / 42.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 983 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 30 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/13 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 155 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2025/01/14 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 45

36H: 2025/01/14 12 UTC: 18.6 S / 40.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2025/01/15 00 UTC: 20.9 S / 40.7 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2025/01/15 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 41.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/16 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 42.8 E, VENT MAX= 110 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/17 00 UTC: 29.6 S / 46.2 E, VENT MAX= 120 KT, VERY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 295 SW: 185 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/18 00 UTC: 32.4 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 335 SW: 195 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE, WITH
THE SYSTEM ADOPTING A SHEARED PATTERN. HOWEVER, THE GCOM MICROWAVE
PICTURE FROM 2256Z SHOWS A BETTER-LOOKING RING THAN BEFORE. DVORAK'S
ANALYSIS ESTIMATES THE INTENSITY AT 65KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
SOME OBJECTIVE ANALYSES. HOWEVER, THE ASCAT PASS AT 1852Z MEASURES
WINDS OF ONLY 45KT. THE SAR AT 1521Z MEASURES AN INTENSITY OF 60KT.
THE RSMC THEREFORE PROPOSES AN ESTIMATE OF 55-60 KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM IS SET TO CONTINUE ITS WEST-SOUTH-WEST
TRAJECTORY, BEFORE CURVING AROUND THE MOZAMBICAN COAST ON MONDAY.
HOWEVER, A LANDING CANNOT BE EXCLUDED. IT WILL THEN TURN SOUTH AND
THEN SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE MODELS ARE HIGHLY DISPERSED FROM
MONDAY ONWARDS. IN FACT, DEPENDING ON THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH
OVER SOUTHERN AFRICA, DIKELEDI'S TRACK COULD IMPACT THE MOZAMBIQUE
COAST OVER THE PROVINCE OF NAMPULA ON MONDAY, THIS IS THE SCENARIO
WE'VE CHOSEN, OR PASS WELL INTO THE CENTER OF THE CHANNEL. SIMILARLY,
IN THE LONGER TERM, THE PREFERRED SCENARIO REMAINS A PASSAGE TO THE
SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, BUT A SCENARIO PASSING OVER THE SOUTHERN TIP OF
GRANDE TERRE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE RSMC FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AVAILABLE, FAVOURING A TRACK ALONG THE
CENTRE OF THE CHANNEL.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKELEDI WILL BENEFIT FROM FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ITS INTENSIFICATION, WITH DECREASING WIND
SHEAR AND WARM WATERS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
SYSTEM'S MAXIMUM INTENSITY, SINCE THIS WILL DEPEND ON ITS FINAL
TRACK, BUT WITH THE SCENARIO CHOSEN, DIKELEDI SHOULD BRUSH UP AGAINST
MOZAMBIQUE AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE, WITH A SLIGHT DROP IN
INTENSITY. AFTER THAT, ITS TRACK LEAVES THE AFRICAN COAST AND IT
SHOULD BENEFIT FROM EXCELLENT ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS (LOW SHEAR,
EXCELLENT ALTITUDE DIVERGENCE, EXCEPTIONAL OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT) TO
INTENSIFY INTO AN INTENSE OR EVEN VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER, IF THERE IS INTERACTION WITH AFRICAN COASTS, INTENSIFICATION
WILL BE SLOWER. IN ADDITION, A POSSIBLE REPLACEMENT OF THE EYEWALL
DURING ITS MATURE PHASE COULD CAUSE ITS INTENSITY TO FLUCTUATE.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

NORTHWEST MADAGASCAR :
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT (50-100MM) ALONG THE COAST OF
MAHAJANGA PROVINCE AND OVER THE ANTSIRANANA RELIEF.

MAYOTTE :
- INTENSE RAIN STILL POSSIBLE (TOTALS OF AROUND 50MM) UNDER THE
PERIPHERAL BANDS.
- AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY MOVES AWAY, THE RISK OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
DIMINISH TOMORROW AND DEFINITIVELY ON TUESDAY..

COMOROS:
- THE ISLANDS SHOULD BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SYSTEM'S
PERIPHERY.
- HEAVY RAINS TODAY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. CUMULATIVE
RAINS CLOSE TO 100 MM IN 24H LOCALLY, 150-200 MM ON EXPOSED RELIEF.

MOZAMBIQUE (COAST OF NAMPULA PROVINCE) :
- RISK OF STORM OR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAIN POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS OF
150-200MM OR EVEN 250MM IN 24 HOURS LOCALLY ALONG THE COAST.
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE FROM MONDAY TO TUESDAY MORNING.

SOUTH-WEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE) FROM WEDNESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY. 100-150 MM IN 24H.
- GALES POSSIBLE, STORM FORCE WINDS NOT EXCLUDED
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METRES POSSIBLE

JUAN DE NOVA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY:
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM CUMULATIVE).
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS POSSIBLE.
- GALE POSSIBLE.

EUROPA FROM WEDNESDAY :
- HEAVY RAIN (100-150MM CUMULATIVE).
- WAVES OF 4 TO 6 METERS POSSIBLE.
- GALE TO STORM POSSIBLE, HURRICANE FORCE WINDS NOT EXCLUDED.=

Meow

pocketbox 发表于 2025-1-13 09:25

回归线以南VITC，这是什么疯狂预报？不过CDO还行。

桑美和伊欧凯

pocketbox 发表于 2025-1-13 09:25
WTIO30 FMEE 130216
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING ( ...

算是一个超级平西王了，扰动可是在印尼附近生成的

pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：柳龙生  签发：许映龙  2025 年 01 月 13 日 10 时
“迪克莱迪”将登陆或擦过莫桑比克东北部

时        间：13日08时（北京时）

海        域：西南印度洋

命        名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬14.6度、东经42.7度

强度等级：热带气旋

最大风力：12级（35米/秒，相当于我国的台风级）

中心气压：975百帕

参考位置：莫桑比克德尔加杜角省彭巴东南方向约295公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“迪克莱迪”的强度增强到12级

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时15-20公里的速度向西偏南方向移动，强度逐渐加强。即将于今天夜间登陆或擦过莫桑比克东北部沿海（42-48m/s，14-15级），之后逐渐转向南偏东方向移动，强度还将有所加强，并向马达加斯加西南部海面靠近。受其影响，13-17日，莫桑比克海峡、莫桑比克东北部沿海将有7-9级大风，部分地区风力可达10-12级，“迪克莱迪”中心经过的附近海域或地区风力可达13-15级、阵风16-17级。莫桑比克东北部沿海、马达加斯加等地部分地区将有中到大雨，其中莫桑比克东北部沿海、马达加斯加中部和西北部等地部分地区将有暴雨或大暴雨（80-150），莫桑比克东北部沿海局地将有特大暴雨（250-400mm）。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月13日08时00分）



图2 迪克莱迪未来120小时路径概率预报图