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南半球各类图像自动更新暨非扰动云团专帖(2024年7月-2025年6月)

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2556

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5065

积分

强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
5065
发表于 2025-1-28 23:27 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Low 12U
Possible tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria on the weekend.
  • A monsoon surge is forecast to move through Indonesia and into the Australian region late this week.
  • An associated tropical low may develop in the Gulf of Carpentaria.
  • From Sunday the likelihood of this tropical low becoming a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate.
Last updated
7 hours ago, 08:33 am UTC


Tropical Low 14U
A tropical low is possible north of WA late in the week.
  • A tropical low (14U) may develop north or northwest of the Kimberley coast later in the week or over the weekend.
  • If it develops, the low is expected to move west and remain north of the WA coast.
  • There is a Low risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone from Saturday.
Last updated
6 hours ago, 08:58 am UTC

Tropical Low 15U
A tropical low (15U) may form well to the northwest of WA later in the week.
  • A tropical low (15U) may develop well to the northwest of WA later in the week, most likely to the south of Christmas Island or further to the west.
  • If 15U forms, it should move towards the west and may slowly develop. It will most likely pass to the south of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands.
  • There is a low chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone from Saturday, increasing to Moderate next Monday.
  • Although 15U will most likely pass to the south of Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, it may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity in the area.
Last updated
6 hours ago, 09:02 am UTC

Tropical Low 16U
Possible tropical cyclone in the eastern Coral Sea later in the week.
  • A tropical low (16U) may develop in the far north eastern Coral Sea west of Vanuatu during the week.
  • The likelihood of this tropical low becoming a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate during Sunday.
  • There is considerable uncertainty with the potential development of this tropical low, particularly with the possible development of tropical low 13U further to the west.
Last updated
7 hours ago, 08:39 am UTC




Tropical lowsTomorrow 12:00 am Tomorrow 12:00 pm Thu 30  Jan 12:00 am Thu 30  Jan 12:00 pm Fri 31  Jan 12:00 am Fri 31  Jan 12:00 pm Sat 1  Feb 12:00 am Sat 1  Feb 12:00 pm Sun 2  Feb 12:00 am Sun 2  Feb 12:00 pm Mon 3  Feb 12:00 am Mon 3  Feb 12:00 pm Tue 4  Feb 12:00 am Tue 4  Feb 12:00 pm
Tropical Low 12U null (None) null (None) null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low) 25 (Moderate) 25 (Moderate) 25 (Moderate) 25 (Moderate) 15 (Low)
Tropical Low 14U null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low)
Tropical Low 15U null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low) 25 (Moderate) 30 (Moderate) 30 (Moderate) 30 (Moderate)
Tropical Low 16U null (None) null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low) 25 (Moderate) 30 (Moderate) 30 (Moderate) 30 (Moderate) 30 (Moderate)

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20

主题

2556

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5065

积分

强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
5065
发表于 2025-1-29 22:25 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Low 12U
Possible tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria on the weekend.
  • A tropical low, 12U, may develop in the Gulf of Carpentaria late this week.
  • From Sunday the likelihood of this tropical low becoming a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate.
  • There is considerable uncertainty with the potential development of this tropical low, particularly with the possible development of tropical lows to the west and the east.
  • If the system forms it is likely to track generally south or southwest through the Gulf of Carpentaria early next week.
  • By mid-next week, the system will likely weaken as it interacts with land, and the chance of it being a tropical cyclone drops to Low.
Last updated
6 hours ago, 08:41 am UTC

Tropical Low 14U
A tropical low may develop north of WA later in the week.
  • A tropical low (14U) may develop north or northwest of the Kimberley coast during Friday or over the weekend.
  • If it develops, the low is expected to move west and remain north of the WA coast.
  • There is a Low risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone from Saturday.
Last updated
5 hours ago, 08:50 am UTC

Tropical Low 15U
A tropical low (15U) may form well to the northwest of WA later in the week.
  • A tropical low (15U) may develop well to the northwest of WA later in the week, most likely to the south of Christmas Island or further to the west and slowly develop.
  • 15U may be steered to the west or southwest.
  • There is a low chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone from Saturday, increasing to Moderate next Monday.
  • Although 15U will most likely pass to the south of Christmas Island and the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, it may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity in the area.
Last updated
5 hours ago, 08:54 am UTC

Tropical Low 16U
Possible tropical cyclone in the eastern Coral Sea early next week.
  • Late in the week a tropical low (16U) may form in the far northeast of the Coral Sea, to the northwest of Vanuatu.
  • The likelihood of this tropical low becoming a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate during Monday.
  • There is uncertainty with the potential development of this tropical low, particularly with the possible development of tropical lows further to the west.
  • If the system develops it is likely to track generally southwards through the eastern parts of the Coral Sea next week.
  • 16U is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.
Last updated
5 hours ago, 08:53 am UTC





Tropical lowsTomorrow 12:00 am Tomorrow 12:00 pm Fri 31  Jan 12:00 am Fri 31  Jan 12:00 pm Sat 1  Feb 12:00 am Sat 1  Feb 12:00 pm Sun 2  Feb 12:00 am Sun 2  Feb 12:00 pm Mon 3  Feb 12:00 am Mon 3  Feb 12:00 pm Tue 4  Feb 12:00 am Tue 4  Feb 12:00 pm Wed 5  Feb 12:00 am Wed 5  Feb 12:00 pm
Tropical Low 12U null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low) 25 (Moderate) 25 (Moderate) 25 (Moderate) 25 (Moderate) 10 (Low) 5 (Low) 1 (Very Low)
Tropical Low 14U null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low) 10 (Low)
Tropical Low 15U 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low) 25 (Moderate) 35 (Moderate) 40 (Moderate) 40 (Moderate) 40 (Moderate) 40 (Moderate)
Tropical Low 16U null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low) 25 (Moderate) 30 (Moderate) 35 (Moderate) 35 (Moderate) 35 (Moderate) 30 (Moderate)

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20

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2556

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5065

积分

强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
5065
发表于 2025-1-30 22:48 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Low 12U
Slight chance of a tropical low in the Gulf of Carpentaria on the weekend.
  • The chance of tropical low 12U developing into a tropical cyclone is a Low risk from Sunday through Wednesday.
  • 12U has a slight chance of forming in the Gulf of Carpentaria this weekend.
  • If the system forms it is likely to track generally south or southwest through the Gulf of Carpentaria early next week.
  • By mid-next week, the system will likely weaken as it interacts with land, and the chance of it being a tropical cyclone drops to Very Low.
Last updated
6 hours ago, 08:35 am UTC

Tropical Low 14U
A tropical low may form northwest of the Kimberley over the weekend.
  • A tropical low (14U) may form northwest of the Kimberley coast over the weekend.
  • If it develops, the low is expected to move west and remain north of the WA coast.
  • There is a Low risk of it developing into a tropical cyclone on Sunday through to Wednesday.
Last updated
6 hours ago, 09:01 am UTC

Tropical Low 15U
A tropical low (15U) to form well to the northwest of WA having an increasing risk of developing into a tropical cyclone over the weekend over open waters
  • A tropical low (15U) is expected to develop well to the northwest of WA and move to the west southwest remaining well away from the Pilbara coast.
  • It is expected to develop with a moderate risk of being a tropical cyclone later Saturday increasing to high from Sunday.
  • 15U is forecast to move over open waters and not directly affect coastal or island communities.
Last updated
6 hours ago, 08:49 am UTC

Tropical Low 16U
Possible tropical cyclone in the eastern Coral Sea early next week.
  • From Friday a tropical low (16U) may start to form in the far northeast of the Coral Sea, to the northwest of Vanuatu.
  • The likelihood of this tropical low becoming a tropical cyclone increases to Moderate Sunday night or during Monday.
  • There is uncertainty with the potential development of this tropical low, particularly with the possible development of another tropical low in a similar area but further to the east.
  • If the system develops it is likely to track generally southwards through the eastern parts of the Coral Sea next week.
  • 16U is unlikely to directly impact the Australian mainland.
Last updated
6 hours ago, 08:56 am UTC

Tropical Low 17U
Slight chance of a tropical low (17U) forming over open waters of the Indian Ocean.
  • A tropical low (17U) may form over open waters of the Indian Ocean to the west of Cocos (Keeling) Islands this weekend or early next week.
  • The formation and development of 17U will be strongly influenced by 15U, which is likely to form to the east.
  • At this stage there is a Low chance of it developing into a tropical cyclone from Sunday.
  • 17U will most likely linger to southwest of the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, and may enhance shower and thunderstorm activity in the area.
Last updated
6 hours ago, 08:45 am UTC






Tropical lowsTomorrow 12:00 am Tomorrow 12:00 pm Sat 1  Feb 12:00 am Sat 1  Feb 12:00 pm Sun 2  Feb 12:00 am Sun 2  Feb 12:00 pm Mon 3  Feb 12:00 am Mon 3  Feb 12:00 pm Tue 4  Feb 12:00 am Tue 4  Feb 12:00 pm Wed 5  Feb 12:00 am Wed 5  Feb 12:00 pm Thu 6  Feb 12:00 am Thu 6  Feb 12:00 pm
Tropical Low 12U null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 1 (Very Low) null (None) null (None)
Tropical Low 14U null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 10 (Low) 10 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 1 (Very Low) null (None)
Tropical Low 15U 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 10 (Low) 25 (Moderate) 40 (Moderate) 55 (High) 55 (High) 55 (High) 55 (High) 55 (High) 55 (High) 55 (High) 55 (High) 45 (Moderate)
Tropical Low 16U 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 10 (Low) 15 (Low) 15 (Low) 25 (Moderate) 25 (Moderate) 30 (Moderate) 30 (Moderate) 25 (Moderate) 25 (Moderate) 25 (Moderate) 15 (Low) 15 (Low)
Tropical Low 17U null (None) null (None) 1 (Very Low) 1 (Very Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low) 5 (Low)

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20

主题

2556

回帖

5065

积分

强台风

Super Typhoon

积分
5065
发表于 2025-1-31 09:50 | 显示全部楼层
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 302330 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTRE 1002HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 164.0E
AT 301800 UTC.  POSITION POOR. TD05F SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION UNORGANISED OVER SUPPOSSED LLCC. LLCC LIES IN A
MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER THE SYSTEM. CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS EXTEND UPTO 700HPA. SST IS
AROUND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THIS SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW TO LOW.

*********************************************************************
************

NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.
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