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西澳以北四级强热带气旋“埃罗尔”(29U/29S.Errol) - 构建针眼，迅猛加强 - BoM:100KT JTWC:140KT

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原来，明天见，是最伟大的预言

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 楼主| 发表于 2025-4-15 22:45 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 yhh 于 2025-4-15 23:00 编辑




WTXS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WARNING NR 016   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151200Z --- NEAR 13.9S 120.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 120.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160000Z --- 13.9S 119.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 14.2S 118.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 14.6S 118.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 15.0S 118.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   181200Z --- 15.8S 121.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   191200Z --- 16.4S 122.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 17.4S 122.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 13.9S 120.5E.
15APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 253
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 151200Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN
  1. WDXS31 PGTW 151500
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WARNING NR
  4. 016//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.9S 120.8E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 55 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 253 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME,
  13. AUSTRALIA
  14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 07 KTS
  15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET

  17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  18. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN
  19. EXTREMELY SMALL AND COMPACT TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC), WITH TWO
  20. SEPARATED AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION. ONE AREA OF CONVECTION HAS SLID
  21. WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF THE ASSESSED CENTER, WHILE THE OTHER AREA
  22. HAS SPLIT OFF AND COCOONED ITSELF INTO A TINY BUBBLE NEAR THE LLCC.
  23. THE MOST RECENT FRAMES OF EIR SUGGEST THESE TWO AREAS MAY BE
  24. STARTING TO ROTATE AROUND ONE ANOTHER BUT ITS YET TOO EARLY TO TELL
  25. FOR CERTAIN. A 151028Z WSF-M COLOR ENHANCED 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
  26. REVEALED A SMALL BUT WELL-DEFINED LLCC WITH DEVELOPING BANDING
  27. FEATURES SURROUNDING THE CENTER. COMPARISON TO THE 89GHZ CHANNEL
  28. REVEALED A NEARLY VERTICALLY ALIGNED VORTEX, AND A WEAK BUT
  29. DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE-LIKE FEATURE IN THE UPPER-LEVELS. THE
  30. INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
  31. TIGHT GROUPING OF AGENCY FIX POSITIONS AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE
  32. MICROWAVE DATA DISCUSSED ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED
  33. TO 55 KNOTS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE, HEDGED TOWARDS THE T3.5 FIX
  34. INTENSITIES FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. THE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES LIKELY
  35. CONTINUE TO BE TOO LOW DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE CORE OF THE
  36. SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE RAPID
  37. INTENSIFICATION (RI), WITH LOW WIND SHEAR, ZESTY SSTS AND GOOD
  38. RADIAL OUTFLOW WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
  39. TROUGH EAST OF PORT HEDLAND.

  41. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE

  43. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF
  44. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH.

  46. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  47.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
  48.    KNES: T3.5 - 55 KTS
  49.    APRF: T3.0 - 45 KTS
  50.    CIMSS SATCON: 38 KTS AT 151130Z
  51.    CIMSS ADT: 43 KTS AT 151130Z
  52.    CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 151130Z
  53.    CIMSS D-MINT: 39 KTS AT 151053Z
  54.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 43 KTS AT 151130Z

  56. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
  57.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
  58.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
  59.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD

  61. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  62.    INITIAL POSITION: MEDIUM
  63.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  64.    INITIAL WIND RADII: LOW

  66. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  68. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  69. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  71. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 29S (ERROL) IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
  72. TRACKING GENERALLY WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
  73. EXTENSION OF THE STR FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. A SLIGHT TURN
  74. TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST IS ANTICIPATED TO START AROUND TAU 24, WITH
  75. THE TURN SHARPENING AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO
  76. A BREAK IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY THE APPROACH OF A DEEP TROUGH. IN
  77. THE SHORT-TERM, TC ERROL IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY RELATIVELY
  78. QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS NOW THAT THE VORTEX APPEARS TO HAVE
  79. BECOME VERTICALLY ALIGNED. RI COMMENCES AROUND TAU 12, WITH AN
  80. EXPECTED 30 KNOT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 36, REACHING A PEAK OF
  81. AT LEAST 100 KNOTS BY THAT POINT. A DRAMATIC INCREASE IN
  82. NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN IMMEDIATELY
  83. AFTER TAU 36, WITH SHEAR FORECAST TO INCREASE UP FROM ABOUT 15
  84. KNOTS TO OVER 30 KNOTS IN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME, WHICH WILL
  85. QUICKLY DECAPITATE THE SYSTEM. RAPID WEAKENING WILL COMMENCE JUST
  86. AFTER THE SYSTEM PEAKS, WITH INTENSITY EXPECTED TO DROP TO 70 KNOTS
  87. BY TAU 48. AS THE SYSTEM IS SHEARED APART, DRY MID-LEVEL AIR WILL
  88. ALSO MOVE IN AND SMOTHER THE REMAINING VORTEX, WHICH WILL
  89. SIMULTANEOUSLY BE SHALLOWING AT A RAPID PACE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.
  90. PICKED UP BY THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST, THE REMNANT
  91. VORTEX WILL TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEAST AND TRACK TOWARDS THE
  92. NORTHWESTERN COAST OF AUSTRALIA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
  93. FORECAST. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE WEAKENING VORTEX TO MAKE
  94. LANDFALL NORTHEAST OF BROOME, BUT SEVERAL MODELS SUGGEST THE SYSTEM
  95. MAY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE PRIOR TO REACHING THE COAST AND-OR TURNING
  96. BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW
  97. PATTERN PRIOR TO REACHING THE COAST. BOTH SCENARIOS REMAIN IN PLAY
  98. AND THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST.


  101. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE AGREEMENT HAS
  102. IMPROVED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH THE BULK OF THE CONSENSUS
  103. MEMBERS NOW IN FAIRLY GOOD CROSS- AND ALONG-TRACK AGREEMENT THROUGH
  104. TAU 48. THE GEFS MEAN STILL PUSHES THE LLCC FURTHER WEST THAN THE
  105. OTHER MEMBERS OF THE CONSENSUS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST, AND THE
  106. NAVGEM IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO A STRAIGHT SOUTHWEST TRACK FROM TAU 00.
  107. THE REMAINDER OF THE CONSENSUS MEMBERS ARE CONFINED TO A 70NM
  108. ENVELOPE AT TAU 48. THE GUIDANCE QUICKLY DIVERGES AFTER TAU 48
  109. HOWEVER AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN THE
  110. GEFS AND THE GALWEM OPENING UP TO 350NM BY TAU 72, THOUGH ALL
  111. MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT THIS
  112. POINT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF AND EGRR, THE BULK OF THE
  113. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD AROUND TAU 96,
  114. THOUGH THE MODELS VARY SIGNIFICANTLY ON THE STARTING POINT OF THE
  115. TURN, SOME OFFSHORE, SOME ONSHORE, SUCH THAT SPREAD INCREASES EVEN
  116. FURTHER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST. WITH SUCH HIGH DEGREES OF
  117. UNCERTAINTY, THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR THE CONSENSUS MEAN
  118. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD
  119. AGREEMENT, THOUGH THE PEAK INTENSITIES HAVE COME DOWN QUITE A BIT.
  120. MULTIPLE RI AIDS ARE STILL TRIPPED, BUT NO MODEL SHOWS A PEAK
  121. INTENSITY ABOVE 100 KNOTS, WITH THE HWRF DOWN TO 95 KNOTS, WHILE
  122. THE HAFS-A HAS GONE FROM 115 KNOTS TO JUST 70 KNOTS. ALL MODELS
  123. EXCEPT COAMPS-TC REACH PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 36
  124. BEFORE A RAPID DROP OFF. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED AMONGST THE RI
  125. GUIDANCE TRENDS, ABOVE THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

  127. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  128.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  129.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
  130.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  131.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: LOW//
  132. NNNN
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生命因何而沉睡，因为总有一天我们会从梦中醒来
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发表于 2025-4-15 23:29 | 显示全部楼层
命名了？Errol好像是《哈利·波特》里罗恩的猫头鹰的名字



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发表于 2025-4-16 04:50 | 显示全部楼层
本帖最后由 iam最小值 于 2025-4-16 17:28 编辑

IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 2:42 am WST on Wednesday 16 April 2025

Tropical Cyclone Errol (Category 2) was located at 2:00 am AWST near 13.8S
120.2E, that is 510 km north northwest of Broome and 500 km west northwest of
Kuri Bay, and was moving west at 13 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Errol is moving west over open waters well off the northwest
Kimberley coast. It is expected to continue moving west and intensify during
Wednesday. From Thursday Errol is expected to turn southeast towards the coast
and peak in intensity as a severe tropical cyclone. By Friday Errol should
weaken as it approaches the west Kimberley coast.  

Tropical Cyclone Errol will not have any direct impact on the WA coast within
the next 48 hours.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 9:00 am AWST Wednesday 16 April.


AXAU01 APRF 151913
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 1912 UTC 15/04/2025
NAME: TROPICAL CYCLONE ERROL
IDENTIFIER: 29U
DATA AT: 1800 UTC
LATITUDE: 13.8S
LONGITUDE: 120.2E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 25NM (45 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: WEST (270 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 7 KNOTS (13 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 50 KNOTS (95 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 70 KNOTS (130 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT: 40 NM (75 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 50 NM (95 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 50 NM (95 KM)
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT: 40 NM (75 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT: 20 NM (35 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT: 20 NM (35 KM)
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS: 15 NM (30 KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: 3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1006 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 100 NM (185 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  16/0000: 13.9S 119.5E:     035 (070):  055  (100):  986
+12:  16/0600: 14.0S 118.9E:     045 (085):  060  (110):  982
+18:  16/1200: 14.0S 118.6E:     055 (100):  070  (130):  973
+24:  16/1800: 14.2S 118.5E:     060 (110):  080  (150):  964
+36:  17/0600: 14.6S 118.7E:     080 (145):  080  (150):  965
+48:  17/1800: 14.9S 119.6E:     100 (185):  055  (100):  985
+60:  18/0600: 15.5S 120.9E:     125 (230):  045  (085):  993
+72:  18/1800: 15.8S 122.1E:     140 (260):  035  (065):  998
+96:  19/1800: 16.4S 123.3E:     195 (360):  025  (045): 1002
+120: 20/1800: 16.6S 121.7E:     230 (425):  020  (035): 1006
REMARKS:
TROPICAL CYCLONE ERROL SHOWING INCREASED CURVATURE OF DEEP CONVECTION. POSITION
ESTIMATED FROM ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE RAPIDSCAN IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
INTENSITY 50 KN BASED ON DVORAK, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN OBJECTIVE AIDS.
DVORAK ANALYSIS: FT/CI=3.5 BASED ON DT=3.5 CURVED BAND OF 0.8-1.0; MET=3.0
BASED ON A 24H D TREND ADJUSTED TO 3.5 WITH PAT ADJUSTMENT. OBJECTIVE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) AT 1730UTC: ADT 51 KN (CI 3.3, RAW 3.5), AIDT 39
KN, DPRINT 44 KN, AND SATCON 47 KN.

GALES EXTENT ONLY TO 40-50 NM BASED ON OSCAT-3 AT 1618UTC AND INFLUENCED BY NWP
GUIDANCE.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 30  C ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
IS IN PLACE AROUND THE SYSTEM. ERROL LIES ALONG THE AXIS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE AND CIMSS ANALYSED DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR IS 11 KN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA IS ENHANCING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW SOMEWHAT AND THERE IS REASONABLE UPPER DIVERGENCE ANALYSED TO
THE SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST IN THE NEXT 36H TO PEAK
AT 85KN (CATEGORY 3) ON THURSDAY. GIVEN THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS, PERIODS OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION ARE EXPECTED.

THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING BROADLY WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. ON THURSDAY AN AMPLIFYING UPPER
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CAPTURE THE SYSTEM AND STEER IT TO THE SOUTHEAST, TOWARDS
THE WEST KIMBERLEY COAST. THE SMALL SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN FAIRLY RAPIDLY UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE ASSOCIATED WIND SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION DURING THIS
PROCESS. ONCE FULLY SHEARED, THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED BACK TO
THE WEST BY LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK WEAKENS
BELOW TROPICAL CYCLONE STRENGTH NEARO REACHING THE WA COAST.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 16/0130 UTC.=




Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr2 am April 16213.8S120.2E45
+6hr8 am April 16213.9S119.5E70
+12hr2 pm April 16214.0S118.9E85
+18hr8 pm April 16314.0S118.6E100
+24hr2 am April 17314.2S118.5E110
+36hr2 pm April 17314.6S118.7E145
+48hr2 am April 18214.9S119.6E185
+60hr2 pm April 18115.5S120.9E230
+72hr2 am April 19tropical low15.8S122.1E260

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WTXS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WARNING NR 017   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   151800Z --- NEAR 13.9S 120.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 120.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   160600Z --- 14.1S 119.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 14.4S 118.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 14.8S 118.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 15.2S 119.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 15.9S 121.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 16.6S 122.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0S 120.0E.
15APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 264
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
151800Z IS 989 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z
AND 162100Z.//
NNNN





  1. WDXS31 PGTW 152100
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL)      
  4. WARNING NR 017//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 13.9S 120.3E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 60 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 264 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME,
  13.                          AUSTRALIA
  14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 06 KTS
  15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 21 FEET

  17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  18. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 29S HAS STEADILY CONSOLIDATED WHILE MAINTAINING
  19. A COMPACT, VERTICALLY ALIGNED CORE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
  20. SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO),
  21. WITH RAPIDLY CYCLING DEEP CONVECTION AND INTENSE CONVECTIVE BURSTS
  22. (CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS HIGH AS -87C). ALTHOUGH EIR IMAGERY HAS
  23. HINTED AT EYE FORMATION, A CLEAR, DISTINCT EYE HAS YET TO FORM.
  24. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES IMPROVED RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH
  25. A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. A TIMELY 151725Z AMSR2 89GHZ
  26. MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-
  27. DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION
  28. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, AND EXTENSIVE SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
  29. AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KTS IS ASSESSED
  30. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF THE AGENCY DVORAK
  31. ESTIMATES. CIMSS SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED SLOWLY
  32. BUT REMAIN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES,
  33. RANGING FROM 38 TO 51 KNOTS.

  35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

  37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
  38. POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

  40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  41.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
  42.    KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
  43.    APRF: T3.5 - 55 KTS
  44.    CIMSS SATCON: 48 KTS AT 151454Z
  45.    CIMSS ADT: 51 KTS AT 151730Z
  46.    CIMSS AIDT: 38 KTS AT 151730Z
  47.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 45 KTS AT 151900Z

  49. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
  50.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
  51.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
  52.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL

  54. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  55.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  56.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  57.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

  59. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  61. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
  62. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.

  64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 29S IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
  65. NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
  66. WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 24, THE
  67. SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND TURN SHARPLY SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MAJOR TROUGH
  68. APPROACHES AND DEEPENS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA, QUICKLY BREAKING
  69. DOWN THE STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE
  70. THROUGH TAU 24, WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
  71. UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL JET OVER NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA.
  72. CONSEQUENTLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED, WITH A PEAK
  73. INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 100 KNOTS FORECAST BY TAU 24. NEAR TAU 36,
  74. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DEGRADE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS
  75. UNDER STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH.
  76. TC ERROL WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
  77. FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN WESTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE NEAR-
  78. EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH ENTRENCHED TO
  79. THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO EXTENSIVE DRY AIR
  80. ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING (30-50 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WITH
  81. DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96.

  83. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
  84. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, RAPIDLY EVOLVING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC
  85. TRACK FORECAST, HOWEVER, REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
  86. FORECAST TRACK. RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER
  87. SUPPORTING THE RI PHASE OF THE FORECAST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE
  88. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AND ALSO
  89. SHOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE RECURVE POINT AND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
  90. TOWARD NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA.   

  92. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  93.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  94.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
  95.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  96.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
  97. NNNN
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Super Typhoon

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IDW24000
Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

TROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION BULLETIN
Issued at 8:33 am WST on Wednesday 16 April 2025

Tropical Cyclone Errol (Category 2) was located at 8:00 am AWST near 14.0S
119.8E, that is 515 km north northwest of Broome and 540 km west northwest of
Kuri Bay, and was moving west southwest at 10 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Errol is expected to continue intensifying to reach a severe
category 3 tropical cyclone later today.

Errol is currently moving west, but is expected to turn to the southeast from
tonight and begin moving towards the west Kimberley coast on Thursday.

Errol may weaken to a category 1 cyclone as it approaches the coast late on
Friday. Despite the weakening, gales may still occur along exposed parts of the
coast overnight on Friday or early Saturday.

Impacts associated with tropical cyclone Errol are not expected along coast
within the next 48 hours.

The next Information Bulletin will be issued at 3:00 pm AWST Wednesday 16 April.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0056 UTC 16/04/2025
Name: Tropical Cyclone Errol
Identifier: 29U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 14.0S
Longitude: 119.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: west southwest (248 deg)
Speed of Movement: 5 knots (10 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 60 knots (110 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 85 knots (155 km/h)
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:   nm (  km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1008 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm (280 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  16/0600: 14.1S 119.4E:     015 (025):  065  (120):  980
+12:  16/1200: 14.2S 118.9E:     020 (040):  075  (140):  971
+18:  16/1800: 14.3S 118.7E:     030 (055):  080  (150):  964
+24:  17/0000: 14.5S 118.7E:     035 (065):  085  (155):  962
+36:  17/1200: 14.9S 119.2E:     050 (095):  070  (130):  975
+48:  18/0000: 15.1S 120.2E:     065 (125):  050  (095):  989
+60:  18/1200: 15.6S 121.4E:     085 (155):  045  (085):  996
+72:  19/0000: 16.0S 122.5E:     100 (185):  030  (055): 1001
+96:  20/0000: 16.3S 122.9E:     130 (240):  025  (045): 1004
+120: 21/0000:             :              :            :     
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Errol showing improved structure and signs of an eye. Position
is based on animated satellite and rapidscan VIS imagery with good confidence.

Intensity 60 kn based on Dvorak, slightly higher than objective aids.

Dvorak analysis: FT/CI=4.0 based on MET and PT. DT was 4.5 based on eye pattern
surrounding and eye temp both being LG. Objective intensity estimates (1-minute
average) at 0010UTC: ADT 53 kn, AiDT 49 kn, DPRINT 50 kn, DMINT 55 kn and
SATCON 55 kn.

Environmental conditions are favourable for further development. Sea surface
temperatures are near 30  C along the forecast track, and deep layer moisture
is in place around the system. Errol lies along the axis of an upper level
anticyclone and CIMSS analysed deep layer wind shear is 11 kn from the
northeast. A shortwave upper trough over Western Australia is enhancing
poleward outflow somewhat and there is reasonable upper divergence analysed to
the south of the circulation. Development is forecast in the next 36h to peak
at 85 kn (category 3) on Thursday. Given the small size of the system and the
favourable conditions, periods of rapid intensification are expected and Errol
reaching a low end category 4 cyclone is a possibility.

The system is expected to continue moving broadly westward under the influence
of a mid-level ridge to the south. On Thursday an amplifying upper trough is
forecast to capture the system and steer it to the southeast, towards the west
Kimberley coast. The small system should weaken fairly rapidly under the
influence of the associated wind shear and dry air intrusion during this
process. Once fully sheared, the remnant low is expected to be steered back to
the west by low level ridging to the south. The current forecast track weakens
below tropical cyclone strength near the WA coast on Saturday morning.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 16/0730 UTC.


Time (AWST)Intensity CategoryLatitude
(decimal deg.)		Longitude
(decimal deg.)		Estimated Position
Accuracy (km)
0hr8 am April 16214.0S119.8E35
+6hr2 pm April 16314.1S119.4E25
+12hr8 pm April 16314.2S118.9E40
+18hr2 am April 17314.3S118.7E55
+24hr8 am April 17314.5S118.7E65
+36hr8 pm April 17314.9S119.2E95
+48hr8 am April 18215.1S120.2E125
+60hr8 pm April 18115.6S121.4E155
+72hr8 am April 19tropical low16.0S122.5E185

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原来，明天见，是最伟大的预言

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WTXS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WARNING NR 018   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160000Z --- NEAR 14.1S 119.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1S 119.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161200Z --- 14.4S 118.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170000Z --- 14.7S 118.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171200Z --- 15.1S 119.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180000Z --- 15.5S 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 16.2S 121.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   200000Z --- 16.9S 122.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2S 119.5E.
16APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160000Z IS 976 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.//
NNNN
  1. WDXS31 PGTW 160300
  2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
  3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL)
  4. WARNING NR 018//
  5. RMKS/
  6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
  7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.

  9. SUMMARY:
  10.    INITIAL POSITION: 14.1S 119.7E
  11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 80 KTS
  12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 270 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF BROOME,
  13.                          AUSTRALIA
  14.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KTS
  15.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 27 FEET

  17. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
  18. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 40 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
  19. 24 HOURS FROM 40 KNOTS AT 150000Z TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
  20. OF 80 KNOTS. AS INDICATED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
  21. SATELLITE IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED QUICKLY AND DRAMATICALLY,
  22. RAPIDLY FORMING A PINHOLE EYE WITHIN A COMPACT CORE, WITH EYE
  23. TEMPERATURES DECREASING TO ABOUT -23C AS OF 160110Z. AN UNOFFICIAL
  24. DVORAK ESTIMATE AT 160050Z WOULD YIELD A T5.5 (102 KNOTS), WHICH IS
  25. SUBSTANTIALLY HIGHER THAN THE 160000Z OFFICIAL AGENCY DVORAK
  26. INTENSITY ESTIMATES UPON WHICH THIS WARNING IS BASED. CIMSS OBJECTIVE
  27. INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO LAG BELOW THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
  28. ESTIMATES. HOWEVER, THE 160100Z CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE JUST SWITCHED TO
  29. THE EYE PATTERN, WITH RAW T-NUMBERS JUMPING TO 5.2 (95 KNOTS). THE
  30. INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED
  31. ON THE PGTW AND KNES ESTIMATES AT 152330-152340Z. ANY CHANGES AFTER
  32. 160000Z WILL BE REFLECTED IN THE NEXT JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST.
  33. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE, WITH RADIAL
  34. OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES.

  36. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: OBJECTIVE BEST TRACK

  38. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
  39. POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST.

  41. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
  42.    PGTW: T5.0 - 90 KTS
  43.    KNES: T4.5 - 77 KTS
  44.    APRF: T4.0 - 65 KTS
  45.    CIMSS SATCON: 55 KTS AT 152204Z
  46.    CIMSS ADT: 53 KTS AT 152330Z
  47.    CIMSS AIDT: 51 KTS AT 152330Z
  48.    CIMSS D-MINT: 55 KTS AT 152203Z
  49.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 50 KTS AT 152330Z

  51. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
  52.    VWS: 5-10 KTS
  53.    SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
  54.    OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
  55.    OTHER FACTORS: ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL

  57. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
  58.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
  59.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
  60.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM

  62. 3. FORECAST REASONING.

  64. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A PINHOLE
  65. EYE AND RAPID CONSOLIDATION, THE PEAK INTENSITY FORECAST THROUGH
  66. TAU 24 HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 120 KNOTS.

  68. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 29S IS TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE
  69. NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
  70. WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. AFTER TAU 12, THE
  71. SYSTEM WILL SLOW AND TURN SHARPLY SOUTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD AS A
  72. MAJOR TROUGH APPROACHES AND DEEPENS OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA, QUICKLY
  73. BREAKING DOWN THE STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
  74. FAVORABLE THROUGH TAU 18, WITH IMPROVED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED
  75. BY THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND SUBTROPICAL JET OVER NORTHWEST
  76. AUSTRALIA. CONSEQUENTLY, RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE
  77. UNABATED, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 120 KNOTS FORECAST BY
  78. TAU 12. NEAR TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DEGRADE AS
  79. THE SYSTEM TRACKS UNDER STRONG WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
  80. AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. TC ERROL WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
  81. THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN WESTERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN
  82. THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH
  83. ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO
  84. EXTENSIVE DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASING (30-50 KNOTS) VERTICAL
  85. WIND SHEAR, WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY TAU 96.

  87. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
  88. DUE TO THE COMPLEX, RAPIDLY EVOLVING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE JTWC
  89. TRACK FORECAST, HOWEVER, REMAINS HIGHLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS
  90. FORECAST TRACK. RAPID INTENSIFICATION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TRIGGER
  91. SUPPORTING THE RI PHASE OF THE FORECAST. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE
  92. ECENS AND GEFS ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST AND ALSO
  93. SHOW UNCERTAINTY IN THE RECURVE POINT AND EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
  94. TOWARD NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA.

  96. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
  97.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  98.    TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
  99.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
  100.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
  101. NNNN
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生命因何而沉睡，因为总有一天我们会从梦中醒来
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pocketbox

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强台风

Super Typhoon

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发表于 2025-4-16 11:25 | 显示全部楼层
全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：翟丽萍  签发：许映龙  2025 年 04 月 16 日 10 时
澳大利亚附近海域热带气旋命名为“埃罗尔”

时        间：16日08时（北京时）

海        域：澳大利亚附近海域

命        名：“埃罗尔”，ERROL

中心位置：南纬14.0度、东经119.8度

强度等级：二级热带气旋

最大风力：11级（30米/秒，相当于我国的强热带风暴级）

中心气压：984百帕

参考位置：澳大利亚西澳大利亚州黑德兰港偏北方向约710公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去24小时，“埃罗尔”由7级加强到11级

预报结论：“埃罗尔”将以每小时5-10公里的速度向偏西方向移动，之后逐渐转向偏东方向，强度逐渐加强。



图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年04月16日08时00分）

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分区版主-高空急流

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发表于 2025-4-16 11:36 | 显示全部楼层
就是一個靚字

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If necessary, for years, if necessary, alone.
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论坛版主-副热带高压

那种勃勃生机、万物竞发的境界，犹在眼前。

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发表于 2025-4-16 11:40 | 显示全部楼层
TPXS10 PGTW 160316
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL)
B. 16/0230Z
C. 14.04S
D. 119.45E
E. ONE/GK2A
F. T6.0/6.0/D3.0/24HRS  STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. EYE EMBEDDED 48NM IN CDO
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR BF TO YIELD A DT (NO EYE
ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET YIELDS 4.0. PT YIELDS 4.5. DBO DT. BROKE
CONSTRAINTS DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

   SWANSON


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～风吹过城市的角落～
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热带低压

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发表于 2025-4-16 12:56 | 显示全部楼层
真是苦尽甘来啊

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