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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-1-19 04:55 编辑
WTXS32 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 19.2S 117.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2S 117.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 19.9S 115.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.7S 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 22.1S 111.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 23.4S 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 25.8S 106.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 27.8S 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 30.4S 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 116.8E.
18JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 258 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 181800Z IS 992 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
//
NNNN
- WDXS32 PGTW 182100
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR
- 004//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 19.2S 117.3E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 45 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 258 NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 18 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
- CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY
- RECENTLY FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WEST AND DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC.
- THE SYSTEM IS SHOWING SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT, AS MORE FEEDER BANDS WRAP
- INTO THE CENTER AND OVERALL TURNING BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE
- OUTFLOW REMAINS RADIAL, WITH MORE PROMINENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD
- CHANNELS, AS DEPICTED IN THE ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
- PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON RECENTLY PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC,
- CONSISTENT WITH A 181430Z ASCAT-C POSITION EXTRAPOLATION. THE INITIAL
- INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
- 181418Z METOP-C UHR ASCAT IMAGE SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF 35-40 KNOT
- WINDS. ADDITIONALLY, AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5-3.0 AND CIMSS
- OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 36-45 KTS FURTHER SUPPORTED THE
- INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- KNES: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- DEMS: T3.0 - 45 KTS
- APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 40 KTS AT 181800Z
- CIMSS ADT: 37 KTS AT 181800Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 181800Z
- CIMSS DPRINT: 45 KTS AT 181830Z
- CIMSS DMINT: 43 KTS 181723Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
- VWS: 5-10 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: FOLLOWING A SLIGHTLY ERRATIC MOTION OVER THE
- LAST 12 HOURS DRIVEN BY A WEAK, BUT SLOWLY DEVELOPING STEERING
- PATTERN, TC 10S IS FORECAST TO NOW CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARD
- WITH A CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH TO LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA OF
- APPROXIMATELY 90 NM. AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
- SOUTHEAST BUILDS, TC 10S WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL ALONG ITS WESTERN
- PERIPHERY. STRONGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO
- RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NEAR TAU 48,
- THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN RAPIDLY WEAKENING, DUE TO SEA SURFACE
- TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO AROUND 24 C, INCREASING VERTICAL
- WIND SHEAR AND INTRUDING DRY AIR. TC 10S IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN DOWN TO
- 35 KTS AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH DISSIPATION SOON
- THEREAFTER.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
- REGARD TO THE MOVEMENT TRACK, WITH ALL TRACKERS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY
- TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
- JTWC TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FIRST 72 HOURS, AS INDICATED BY THE
- CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 90 NM. THE TRACK AIDS DIFFUSE AFTERWARDS,
- HOWEVER, ALL ARE FORECASTING MOTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
- OF THE STR TO THE EAST. INTENSITY FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ASSESSED
- AS MEDIUM DUE TO RATHER LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE RI AND OTHER
- DETERMINISTIC MODEL AIDS DIFFERING SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE RATE OF
- INTENSIFICATION, AS WELL AS PEAK INTENSITY. HAFS-A IS A SIGNIFICANT
- OUTLIER THIS RUN, WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF JUST 50 KTS AT TAU 60, MUCH
- WEAKER THAN THE REMAINDER OF GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE STRONGLY FAVORABLE
- ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS ON THE
- HIGHER END OF THE SPECTRUM AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PEAK INTENSITY
- OF 90 KTS, AS FORECAST BY MULTIPLE RI AIDS.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
- TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: 1007圆规
发表于 2025-1-19 04:45
