卡奔塔利亚湾热带低压30U(31P)

ygsj24

WTPS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 007   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 12.5S 141.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.5S 141.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 12.5S 140.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 12.4S 138.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 12.0S 137.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 11.4S 135.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 10.1S 132.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 8.7S 129.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 12.5S 140.8E.
19APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
592 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 191800Z IS
1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 10 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.//
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 192100
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE)
   
4. WARNING NR 007//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 12.5S 141.0E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 592 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 01 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TWO
    
18. DISCRETE AREAS OF LINEAR DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE WESTERN
    
19. AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, THE
    
20. EIR IMAGERY IS USELESS FOR POSITIONING. FORTUNATELY, ANIMATED RADAR
    
21. IMAGERY SHOWS MODERATE RAINBANDS WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED
    
22. LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
    
23. POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 191809Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
    
24. REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WEAK LLCC, WITH ISOLATED
    
25. CONVECTIVE BURSTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. VERTICAL WIND
    
26. SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO 10-15 KNOTS; HOWEVER, OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL
    
27. CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINAL, WITH WEAK OUTFLOW, INTERACTION WITH LAND
    
28. AND POSSIBLY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM CAPE YORK PENINSULA.
    
29. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY TILTED, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
    
30. CIRCULATION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS
    
31. IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PGTW AND ADRM DVORAK
    
32. ESTIMATES. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 27 TO 39
    
33. KNOTS.
    
34. 
    
35. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
    
36. RADII).
    
37. 
    
38. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING
    
39. TO THE SOUTHWEST
    
40. 
    
41. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
42.    PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
43.    KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
    
44.    ADRM: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
45.    CIMSS SATCON: 39 KTS AT 191402Z
    
46.    CIMSS ADT: 39 KTS AT 191730Z
    
47.    CIMSS AIDT: 33 KTS AT 191730Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 25 KTS AT 191800Z
    
49. 
    
50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
51.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
52.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
53.    OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
    
54. 
    
55. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
56.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
57.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
58.    INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
    
59. 
    
60. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
61. 
    
62. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
63. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
64. 
    
65. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31P IS LOCATED IN A WEAK
    
66. STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH A STR BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
    
67. THEREFORE, TRACK MOTION HAS BEEN VERY SLOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
    
68. HOWEVER, THE STR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT 06-12
    
69. HOURS, WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. TC 31P SHOULD BEGIN
    
70. TO RE-INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE CAPE
    
71. YORK PENINSULA, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN THE PEAK INTENSITY TO 40
    
72. KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48, TC 31P WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD,
    
73. WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY TAU 96.
    
74. 
    
75. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED IN FAIR
    
76. AGREEMENT, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK
    
77. FORECAST. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE 191200Z GEFS AND ECENS RUNS
    
78. SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER WATER NORTH OF
    
79. ARNHEM LAND. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MAJOR
    
80. IMPACTS TO THE DARWIN AREA, ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS MAY OCCUR AS THE
    
81. SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF DARWIN IN THREE DAYS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
    
82. UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH GUIDANCE RANGING
    
83. FROM 30 TO 45 KNOTS. GFS IS ON THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
    
84. AND NOW INDICATES SIGNIFICANT TILT TO THE VORTEX THROUGH THE NEXT TWO
    
85. DAYS. HAFS-A AND COAMPS-TC (GFS) ARE MORE OPTIMISTIC, WITH PEAK
    
86. INTENSITY VALUES OF 40-42 KNOTS FROM TAU 24-48.     
    
87. 
    
88. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
89.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
90.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
91.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
92.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
93. NNNN

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ygsj24

AXAU01 ADRM 200044
IDD20020
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - NORTHERN REGION
ISSUED BY AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
AT: 0044 UTC 20/04/2025
NAME: TROPICAL LOW
IDENTIFIER: 30U
DATA AT: 0000 UTC
LATITUDE: 12.5S
LONGITUDE: 141.2E
LOCATION ACCURACY: WITHIN 15NM (30 KM)
MOVEMENT TOWARDS: EAST NORTHEAST (063 DEG)
SPEED OF MOVEMENT: 1 KNOTS (2 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE WIND: 30 KNOTS (55 KM/H)
MAXIMUM 3-SECOND WIND GUST: 45 KNOTS (85 KM/H)
CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 34-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SE QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS SW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 48-KNOT WINDS NW QUADRANT:
RADIUS OF 64-KNOT WINDS:   NM (  KM)
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS:   NM (  KM)
DVORAK INTENSITY CODE: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
PRESSURE OF OUTERMOST ISOBAR: 1008 HPA
RADIUS OF OUTERMOST CLOSED ISOBAR: 120 NM (220 KM)
FORECAST DATA
DATE/TIME    : LOCATION    : LOC. ACCURACY: MAX WIND   : CENTRAL PRESSURE
(UTC)        : DEGREES     :      NM  (KM): KNOTS(KM/H): HPA
+06:  20/0600: 12.5S 140.7E:     030 (050):  035  (065): 1000
+12:  20/1200: 12.4S 140.1E:     035 (065):  040  (075):  997
+18:  20/1800: 12.4S 139.4E:     045 (080):  040  (075):  997
+24:  21/0000: 12.3S 138.6E:     050 (090):  040  (075):  998
+36:  21/1200: 11.8S 137.1E:     065 (125):  030  (055): 1003
+48:  22/0000: 11.2S 135.6E:     085 (155):  030  (055): 1003
+60:  22/1200: 10.3S 134.3E:     100 (185):  030  (055): 1003
+72:  23/0000:  9.7S 133.5E:     110 (200):  030  (055): 1002
+96:  24/0000:  8.9S 132.8E:     155 (290):  025  (045): 1004
+120: 25/0000:  8.8S 132.4E:     205 (380):  025  (045): 1004
REMARKS:
TROPICAL LOW 30U REMAINS SLOW-MOVING NEAR THE WESTERN CAPE YORK PENINSULA
COAST. ANOTHER VIGOROUS BURST OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CENTRE. POSITION IS BASED ON WEIPA RADAR WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
THE RADAR SIGNATURE IS BECOMING LESS CLEAR AS THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
DECREASES IN ORGANISATION.

DVORAK ANALYSIS: DT = 2.5 BASED ON A THREE HOUR AVERAGED CURVED BAND PATTERN
WITH THE WRAP DECREASING FROM AROUND 0.45 TO 0.25 AS BREAKS APPEAR IN THE
CONVECTION. MET IS 3.0 BASED ON A 24 HOUR D TREND, AND PAT IS ADJUSTED TO 2.5.
FINAL T 2.5 BASED ON PAT, AND CI IS INCREASED TO 2.5. PROLONGED PROXIMITY TO
LAND IS LIKELY TO BE DECREASING THE SKILL OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AS AN INTENSITY
ESTIMATOR. OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE AT 2300 UTC: ADT 45 KN (UNIFORM PATTERN), AIDT 35
KN, DPRINT 28 KN, DMINT 26 KNOTS, MW SOUNDERS (2108 UTC) 32 KN, AND SATCON 36
KN (ALL 1-MIN AVERAGE). INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KN BASED ON 2311 UTC
ASCAT B PASS, BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH MOST OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE.

30U LIES ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE AND AHEAD OF A SLOW MOVING
LONG WAVE UPPER TROUGH WEST OF WA. THE CIMSS ANALYSED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM HAS DECREASED OVERNIGHT AND IS CURRENTLY ANALYSED AROUND 10-15 KNOTS
NE'LY. THIS IS SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY A DRY AIR INTRUSION WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN FLANK INTO THE CENTRE OF THE SYSTEM AS DEPICTED ON THE MIMIC TPW,
FURTHER EVIDENCED BY INCREASED LIGHTNING ACTIVITY IN THE CONVECTION DURING THE
EARLY MORNING. SSTS ARE AROUND 30C. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS CURRENTLY
LOW, GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NEAR A SHEAR GRADIENT AT THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA. DESPITE SOME GOOD UPPER OUTFLOW AND UPPER DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH,
THE SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO WAX AND WANE GIVING THE VORTEX LIMITED
OPPORTUNITY TO DEEPEN. DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS UNLIKELY.
HOWEVER, PERIODS OF QUADRANT GALES ARE FORECAST ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM AS THE SHEAR VARIES, WITH LOW LEVEL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH ON MONDAY ALSO
LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN THE SOUTHERN QUADRANTS.

A LOW TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM LATER
TODAY AND WILL CAUSE 30U TO TURN TOWARDS THE WEST, MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF
CARPENTARIA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TRACK WILL TAKE 30U CLOSE TO THE
NORTHEAST TOP END COAST ON MONDAY, BEFORE IT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE ARAFURA
SEA WHERE IT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE ENVIRONMENT THERE
IS LIKELY TO BE UNFAVOURABLE WITH A SURGE OF DRY AIR FROM RIDGING ACROSS
AUSTRALIA HINDERING ANY DEVELOPMENT.

COPYRIGHT COMMONWEALTH OF AUSTRALIA
==
THE NEXT BULLETIN FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ISSUED BY: 20/0730 UTC.=



Headline:
Tropical Low 30U has a moderate chance of developing into a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Carpentaria today and Monday.


Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Tropical Low 30U at 9:30 am ACST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 30 kilometres of 12.5 degrees South, 141.2 degrees East , 75 kilometres west of Weipa and 480 kilometres east of Nhulunbuy .
Movement: slow moving .

Tropical Low 30U is currently slow-moving near the western Cape York Peninsula coast and is forecast to move westwards across the Gulf of Carpentaria during today and Monday.

There is a moderate chance the that 30U will develop into a tropical cyclone later today or on Monday, but it will most likely remain a tropical low. Gales are forecast to develop on the southern side of the system from this afternoon, but they should not affect the western coast of Cape York Peninsula.

30U will pass close to the northeast Top End coast late on Monday, before moving northwest into the Arafura Sea, where it is likely to persist for most of the week.


Details:

	Time (ACST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 am April 20	tropical low	12.5S	141.2E	30
+6hr	4 pm April 20	tropical low	12.5S	140.7E	50
+12hr	10 pm April 20	tropical low	12.4S	140.1E	65
+18hr	4 am April 21	tropical low	12.4S	139.4E	80
+24hr	10 am April 21	tropical low	12.3S	138.6E	90
+36hr	10 pm April 21	tropical low	11.8S	137.1E	125
+48hr	10 am April 22	tropical low	11.2S	135.6E	155
+60hr	10 pm April 22	tropical low	10.3S	134.3E	185
+72hr	10 am April 23	tropical low	9.7S	133.5E	200

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue
The next Forecast Track Map will be issued by 4:30 pm ACST Sunday

---

	Time (AEST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	10 am April 20	tropical low	12.5S	141.2E	30
+6hr	4 pm April 20	tropical low	12.5S	140.7E	50
+12hr	10 pm April 20	tropical low	12.4S	140.1E	65
+18hr	4 am April 21	tropical low	12.4S	139.4E	80
+24hr	10 am April 21	tropical low	12.3S	138.6E	90
+36hr	10 pm April 21	tropical low	11.8S	137.1E	125
+48hr	10 am April 22	tropical low	11.2S	135.6E	155
+60hr	10 pm April 22	tropical low	10.3S	134.3E	185
+72hr	10 am April 23	tropical low	9.7S	133.5E	200

ygsj24

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 008   
WTPS31 PGTW 200300   
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 008   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   200000Z --- NEAR 12.4S 141.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 141.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   201200Z --- 12.5S 140.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   210000Z --- 12.3S 138.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   211200Z --- 11.8S 136.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 11.1S 134.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 9.7S 131.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 8.2S 129.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 12.4S 140.9E.
20APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
384 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
200000Z IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS
10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

1. WDPS31 PGTW 200300
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE)
   
4. WARNING NR 008//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 12.4S 141.1E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 384 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: NORTHEASTWARD AT 01 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 10 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A MODEST
    
18. IMPROVEMENT IN THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE, WITH AN INCREASE IN
    
19. CORE CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING. EIR ALSO SHOWS
    
20. OVERSHOOTING TOPS WITH CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES AS COLD AS -86C. A
    
21. 192107Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE
    
22. BAND OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND PERHAPS A WEAK, FORMATIVE BAND
    
23. TO THE NORTH BUT NEGLIGIBLE BANDING OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
    
24. HOWEVER, A 192313Z ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS A RELATIVELY SMALL REGION OF
    
25. 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT, WITH A WELL-DEFINED,
    
26. SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION AND
    
27. INTENSITY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED TO
    
28. 10-15 KNOTS; HOWEVER, OVERALL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN
    
29. MARGINAL, WITH WEAK OUTFLOW, INTERACTION WITH LAND AND POSSIBLY DRY
    
30. AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM CAPE YORK PENINSULA. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM IS
    
31. SLIGHTLY TILTED, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION DISPLACED TO THE
    
32. SOUTH. CIMSS OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 26 TO 45 KNOTS.
    
33. 
    
34. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
    
35. RADII).
    
36. 
    
37. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) BUILDING
    
38. TO THE SOUTHWEST
    
39. 
    
40. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
41.    PGTW: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
42.    KNES: T2.0 - 30 KTS
    
43.    ADRM: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
44.    CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 200000Z
    
45.    CIMSS ADT: 45 KTS AT 200000Z
    
46.    CIMSS AIDT: 36 KTS AT 200000Z
    
47.    CIMSS D-MINT: 26 KTS AT 192107Z
    
48.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 31 KTS AT 200000Z
    
49. 
    
50. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
    
51.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
52.    SST: 28-29 CELSIUS
    
53.    OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
    
54. 
    
55. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
56.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
57.    INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
    
58.    INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
    
59. 
    
60. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
61. 
    
62. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
63. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
64. 
    
65. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 31P IS LOCATED IN A WEAK
    
66. STEERING ENVIRONMENT, WITH A STR BUILDING TO THE SOUTHWEST.
    
67. THEREFORE, TRACK MOTION HAS BEEN VERY SLOW AND ERRATIC OVER THE PAST
    
68. 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, THE STR IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WITHIN THE NEXT
    
69. 06-12 HOURS, WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. TC 31P SHOULD
    
70. BEGIN TO RE-INTENSIFY AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE
    
71. CAPE YORK PENINSULA, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN THE PEAK INTENSITY TO
    
72. 40 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 48, TC 31P WILL TRACK WEST-
    
73. NORTHWESTWARD, WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION ANTICIPATED BY
    
74. TAU 96.
    
75. 
    
76. MODEL DISCUSSION: DETERMINISTIC TRACK GUIDANCE HAS REMAINED IN FAIR
    
77. AGREEMENT, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK
    
78. FORECAST. PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE 191800Z GEFS AND ECENS
    
79. RUNS SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THE SYSTEM TRACKING OVER WATER NORTH
    
80. OF ARNHEM LAND. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING MAJOR
    
81. IMPACTS TO THE DARWIN AREA, ENHANCED GRADIENT WINDS MAY OCCUR AS
    
82. THE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF DARWIN IN THREE DAYS. THERE IS QUITE A BIT
    
83. OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST, WITH GUIDANCE RANGING
    
84. FROM 28 TO 43 KNOTS. COAMPS-TC (GFS) IS MORE OPTIMISTIC, WITH A PEAK
    
85. INTENSITY VALUE OF 44 KNOTS AT TAU 24.     
    
86. 
    
87. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
88.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
89.    TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
    
90.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
91.    INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
    
92. NNNN

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