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本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-4-19 16:50 编辑
WTPS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 12.7S 141.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 141.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 13.0S 140.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 13.0S 139.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 12.8S 138.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 12.5S 137.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 11.2S 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 9.8S 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 8.8S 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 141.0E.
19APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
597 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 190600Z IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.//
NNNN
- WDPS31 PGTW 190900
- MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
- SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 31P (THIRTYONE) WARNING
- NR 005//
- RMKS/
- 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
- 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
- SUMMARY:
- INITIAL POSITION: 12.7S 141.1E
- INITIAL INTENSITY: 30 KTS
- GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 597 NM EAST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA
- MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KTS
- SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
- SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
- ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
- CYCLONE 31P WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
- (LLCC) AND DEEP CONVECTION FLARING ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A
- 190430Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALED THE WELL-DEFINED
- LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. 31P APPEARS TO HAVE
- STARTED ITS WESTWARD TURN, EVIDENT BY THE SOUTHWESTWARD JOG OVER
- THE PAST 6 HOURS OR SO. THE CURRENT POSITION IS ANALYZED TO BE
- ABOUT 48 NM DUE WEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
- INDICATES THAT 31P IS IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
- WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) NORTHEASTERLY
- VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SLIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, AND WARM (29-30 C)
- SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
- CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC IN ANIMATED MSI. THE
- INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE
- BASED ON PERSISTENCE FROM EARLIER ASCAT DATA, AGENCY DVORAK CI
- ESTIMATES OF 1.5-2.0, AND THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING
- FROM 26-36 KTS.
- INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: NOT APPLICABLE (THERE ARE NO INITIAL WIND
- RADII).
- CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
- RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST.
- AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
- PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
- DEMS: T2.0 - 30 KTS
- CIMSS SATCON: 36 KTS AT 190540Z
- CIMSS ADT: 34 KTS AT 190600Z
- CIMSS AIDT: 30 KTS AT 190600Z
- CIMSS DPRINT: 27 KTS AT 190600Z
- FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: MARGINAL
- VWS: 15-20 KTS
- SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
- OUTFLOW: WEAK POLEWARD
- OTHER FACTORS: SLIGHT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ALONG THE NORTHERN
- PORTION OF THE SYSTEM
- ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
- INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
- INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
- INITIAL WIND RADII: NOT APPLICABLE
- 3. FORECAST REASONING.
- SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
- THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
- FORECAST DISCUSSION: TC 31P IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
- OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE THE STR BUILDS IN TO THE SOUTH OF THE
- VORTEX AND BEGINS PROPAGATING WESTWARD. NEAR TAU 24, THE SYSTEM IS
- FORECAST TO START ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM RIDES
- ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
- THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGARDING INTENSITY, 31P IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
- SLIGHTLY INTENSIFYING WITHIN THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AS THE VORTEX
- BECOMES BETTER ALIGNED THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS AND THE ENVIRONMENT
- MOISTENS. A PEAK OF AROUND 40 KTS IS FORECAST TO OCCUR BETWEEN TAU
- 36 AND 48, BEFORE THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO SKIRT ALONG THE NORTHERN TOP
- END. AFTER TAU 48, 31P IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RIGHT AROUND 35 KTS
- THROUGH TAU 96 DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND AN OVERALL MARGINAL
- ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 96, UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
- INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KTS, CAUSING THE VORTEX TO FURTHER SHALLOW AND
- EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE NEAR TAU 120.
- MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
- AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 WITH A 130 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD AT TAU
- 72. NAVGEM MAKES UP FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE SPREAD THOUGH,
- TRACKING THE VORTEX FURTHER SOUTHWARD THAN THE REMAINDER OF
- GUIDANCE. AFTER TAU 72, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY
- WITH ECMWF AND GFS ACCELERATING THE VORTEX NORTHWESTWARD WHILE
- GALWEM, UKMET, AND NAVGEM DEPICT SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS. THE JTWC
- TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE GFS AND ECMWF
- MODELS WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 72 AND LOW CONFIDENCE
- THEREAFTER. INTENSITY GUIDANCE AGREES ON MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION
- THROUGH TAU 42 AND THEN A STEADY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 96 AND
- WEAKENING THROUGH TAU 120. NOTABLY, GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM WEAKER
- THAN MESOSCALE MODELS DO, BUT ALSO HAS THE VORTEX TRACK CLOSER TO
- THE TOP END THAN HAFS-A, HWRF, AND COAMPS-TC DOES. OVERALL, THE
- JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE. THE
- AMOUNT OF LAND INTERACTION WILL PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW MUCH THE
- SYSTEM IS ABLE TO DEVELOP.
- FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
- TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- TRACK 72-120 HR: LOW
- INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
- INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
- NNNN
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楼主: 933954
发表于 2025-4-19 04:55
发表于 2025-4-19 21:45
