黑德兰港以北热带低压10U&11U(10S) - 两个低压互旋融合，将沿西澳海岸西南行发展

ygsj24

ABIO10 PGTW 171200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/171200Z-171800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/170751ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17JAN25 0600Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 33.7S 54.8E, APPROXIMATELY 792 NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, AND
HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 28 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO
65 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 170900) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
17.2S 112.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 120.0E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM
NORTHWEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND AN AMSR2 GW1 36GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
FRAGMENTED CLOUD BANDS TO THE NORTH, WITH A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND FLARING CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHEAST. THE BROAD CIRCULATION HAS BEEN IDENTIFIED BETWEEN TWO
COALESCING LOW- TO MID-LEVEL AND SEPARATE VORTICES. A PARTIAL 171022Z
METOP-B ASCAT SCATTEROMETRY PASS REVEALS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD
IDENTIFIED BY A SWATH OF 15-20 KNOTS IN THE NORTH-NORTHEAST QUADRANT
AND AN AREA OF ELEVATED WINDS (20-25 KNOTS) APPROXIMATELY 200 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST
90S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY
WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS
AND THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRACK
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.//
NNNN

ygsj24

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 2
Issued at 8:58 pm WST on Friday 17 January 2025

Headline:
A tropical low is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone north of the Pilbara this weekend, with peripheral impacts along the Pilbara coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Ningaloo to De Grey, including Port Hedland, Karratha, Dampier, Onslow and Exmouth.

Cancelled Zone
None.

A tropical low is forming to the north of the Pilbara coast. The environment is conducive to development and the low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone by Sunday. The developing low is expected to move on a westwards track, parallel to the coast, remaining to the north of the Pilbara during the weekend. Early next week, the cyclone is expected to continue on a southwest track, moving well away from the WA mainland coast. Whilst the system is expected to remain north of the coast and no landfall is expected, peripheral impacts for coastal parts are likely.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may develop about coastal and island communities between De Grey and Dampier from early Sunday as the low intensifies to the north of the coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may extend from Dampier to Exmouth overnight Sunday as the system moves further west.

As the system moves westwards, parallel to north WA coast during the weekend, a storm tide is expected between De Grey and Exmouth during Sunday and Monday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 am AWST Saturday 18 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm January 17	tropical low	18.8S	120.9E	110
+6hr	2 am January 18	tropical low	19.0S	120.1E	135
+12hr	8 am January 18	tropical low	19.1S	119.0E	150
+18hr	2 pm January 18	tropical low	19.2S	117.9E	165
+24hr	8 pm January 18	tropical low	18.8S	117.3E	175
+36hr	8 am January 19	tropical low	18.9S	116.1E	190
+48hr	8 pm January 19	1	19.6S	114.2E	180
+60hr	8 am January 20	2	20.6S	112.0E	175
+72hr	8 pm January 20	3	22.0S	109.9E	200

Leonardo

TPXS10 PGTW 171508

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 90S (N OF PORT HEDLAND)

B. 17/1430Z

C. XX.XX

D. XXX.XX

E. N/A/GK2A

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   TIMMERMAN

Leonardo

TXXS27 KNES 171228
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90S)

B.  17/1130Z

C.  18.0S

D.  115.7E

E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9

F.  TOO WEAK

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...PBO EXTRAPOLATION. CIRCULATION NO LONGER APPEARS TO BE
CLOSED AND HAS BECOME ENTRAINED IN A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION LOCATED
WEST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN ISSUED FOR
THIS SYSTEM.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...TURK

=

Leonardo

Leonardo

TXXS28 KNES 171238
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (91S)

B.  17/1130Z

C.  18.5S

D.  120.7E

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F.  T1.0/1.0

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...RADAR SUGGESTS A CIRCULATION MAY EXIST BENEATH A LARGE
COLD OVERCAST. GREATER THAN 2/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 1.0. THE
MET AND PT ARE 1.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...TURK

=

理可的呆萌呆毛

91S距離岸邊有一段距離，前幾天預計的與90S互撕暫時沒出現，應該不至於重演Seroja和Odette的大戰
但感覺吞掉90S后結構會有所影響，整合可能有點慢。
下面是31度以上的SST，還是可以期待一下。。。。

最重要是不要南崩跑陸地上去了

Leonardo

Leonardo

ygsj24

WTAU05 APRF 171853
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:19S120E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1853 UTC 17 JANUARY 2025

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1800 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 60 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal zero south (19.0S)
longitude one hundred and twenty decimal zero east (120.0E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 9 knots
Maximum winds   : 30 knots
Central pressure: 995 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 130 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 35 knots by 1800 UTC 18
January.

From 1800 UTC 18 January winds above 34 knots within 130 nautical miles in SE
quadrant
  and within 120 nautical miles in SW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 0600 UTC 18 January: Within 80 nautical miles of 19.2 south 117.8 east
                        Central pressure 996 hPa.
                        Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 1800 UTC 18 January: Within 75 nautical miles of 18.7 south 116.5 east
                        Central pressure 990 hPa.
                        Winds to 35 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0100 UTC 18 January 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 am January 18	tropical low	19.0S	120.0E	110
+6hr	8 am January 18	tropical low	19.1S	118.9E	135
+12hr	2 pm January 18	tropical low	19.2S	117.8E	145
+18hr	8 pm January 18	tropical low	18.8S	117.1E	150
+24hr	2 am January 19	tropical low	18.7S	116.5E	135
+36hr	2 pm January 19	tropical low	19.2S	115.0E	120
+48hr	2 am January 20	2	20.1S	113.0E	130
+60hr	2 pm January 20	2	21.4S	110.7E	160
+72hr	2 am January 21	3	22.5S	108.7E	175