马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

理可的呆萌呆毛

TPXS12 PGTW 041754

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (SW OF COCOS ISLANDS)

B. 04/1730Z

C. XX.XX

D. XXX.XX

E. N/A/GK2A

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   EL-NAZLY

Leonardo

TPXS12 PGTW 050000

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (SW OF COCOS ISLAND)

B. 04/2330Z

C. XX.XX

D. XXX.XX

E. N/A/GK2A

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: POSITION OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER COULD NOT BE
FOUND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   EL-NAZLY

Leonardo

TXXS23 KNES 040612
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)

B.  04/0530Z

C.  15.3S

D.  94.3E

E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9

F.  TOO WEAK

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO CLASSIFY DUE TO A LACK OF
DEFINED LLCC ON VIS. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN UNLESS REDEVELOPMENT
OCCURS.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KONON

=

Leonardo

GFS 2025/1/4 18Z系集，依然支持继续西行

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 061318
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5

2.A POSITION 2025/01/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 82.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/07 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER

24H: 2025/01/07 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 110

36H: 2025/01/08 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 120

48H: 2025/01/08 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85

60H: 2025/01/09 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85

72H: 2025/01/09 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/10 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
A DISTURBED ZONE ENTERED THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN LAST
SATURDAY FROM THE EAST. THE ASCAT PASS AT 0438Z SHOWS A CIRCULATION THAT
IS STILL ELONGATED, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 KT IN ITS
SOUTHERN PART. CONVECTION IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED, SO A DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION CANNOT YET BE ESTABLISHED.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS FORECAST TO THE WEST ON THE EDGE OF A
SOUTH-CENTRAL SUBTROPIC DORSAL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LAND IN NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS THEREFORE FAIRLY HIGH. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRAJECTORY INCREASES OVER THE LONG TERM.

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS SET TO INCREASE IN A RATHER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS: WEAK TO MODERATE
DEEP SHEAR, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE BELOW THE RIDGE, HIGH OCEAN
POTENTIAL AND FAIRLY GOOD POLAR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS, CONVECTION WITHIN THE DISTURBED ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ORGANIZE ITSELF, INTENSIFYING INTO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.
THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD REACH THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE MAXIMUM INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM, AS THERE IS NO CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

THE INHABITANTS OF SAINT-BRANDON, TROMELIN AND NORTHERN MADAGASCAR
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM (POTENTIAL THREAT
BEYOND 72H).

---

WTIO30 FMEE 061402
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/5/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5

2.A POSITION 2025/01/06 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.1 S / 82.4 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
EIGHTY TWO DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 20 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/07 00 UTC: 14.1 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER

24H: 2025/01/07 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF DISTURBED
WEATHER
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 220 NW: 110

36H: 2025/01/08 00 UTC: 14.6 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 215 SW: 220 NW: 120

48H: 2025/01/08 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 68.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 220 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 85

60H: 2025/01/09 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 220 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 85

72H: 2025/01/09 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/10 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 55.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 48.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 110

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
A DISTURBED ZONE ENTERED THE SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN BASIN LAST
SATURDAY FROM THE EAST. THE ASCAT PASS AT 0438Z SHOWS A CIRCULATION THAT
IS STILL ELONGATED, WITH MAXIMUM WINDS ESTIMATED AT 20 KT IN ITS
SOUTHERN PART. CONVECTION IS STILL POORLY ORGANIZED, SO A DVORAK
CLASSIFICATION CANNOT YET BE ESTABLISHED.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS FORECAST TO THE WEST ON THE EDGE OF A
SOUTH-CENTRAL SUBTROPIC DORSAL. THE SYSTEM SHOULD LAND IN NORTHERN
MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY. THE MAIN MODELS AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO.
CONFIDENCE IN THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS THEREFORE FAIRLY HIGH. HOWEVER,
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE TRAJECTORY INCREASES OVER THE LONG TERM.

THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS SET TO INCREASE IN A RATHER FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONTEXT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS: WEAK TO MODERATE
DEEP SHEAR, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE BELOW THE RIDGE, HIGH OCEAN
POTENTIAL AND FAIRLY GOOD POLAR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. OVER THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS, CONVECTION WITHIN THE DISTURBED ZONE SHOULD CONTINUE
TO ORGANIZE ITSELF, INTENSIFYING INTO A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.
THEREAFTER, IT SHOULD REACH THE STAGE OF A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE MAXIMUM INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM, AS THERE IS NO CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS.

THE INHABITANTS OF SAINT-BRANDON, TROMELIN AND NORTHERN MADAGASCAR
ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM (POTENTIAL THREAT
BEYOND 72H).

THE SYSTEM'S CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF
REGULAR WARNINGS. NEXT WARNING TOMORROW AT 0600Z.

Leonardo

TPXS12 PGTW 070538

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (SE OF DIEGO GARCIA)

B. 07/0530Z

C. 15.33S

D. 79.85E

E. FIVE/MET9

F. T1.0/1.0  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10
SPIRAL YIELDING A DT OF 1.0. MET YIELDS 1.0. PT YIELDS 1.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   RAE

Leonardo

TXXS23 KNES 070604
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)

B.  07/0530Z

C.  14.8S

D.  79.2E

E.  THREE/MET-9

F.  T1.0/1.0

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...>2/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT=1.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE. THE
FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...LEE

=

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 070708
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/5/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5

2.A POSITION 2025/01/07 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 79.0 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/1.5/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/07 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, ZONE OF
DISTURBED WEATHER
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/08 06 UTC: 14.7 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/08 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 66.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2025/01/09 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 120 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 0

60H: 2025/01/09 18 UTC: 15.2 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/01/10 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 56.8 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 140 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 65 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/11 06 UTC: 14.9 S / 50.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2025/01/12 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 44.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 85 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=1.5+

OVER THE PAST 18 HOURS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OF THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER 05-20242025 HAS CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH CONVECTION MORE
NOTICEABLE IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DISTURBED ZONE. THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS CAN BE INITIATED FROM 00UTC, BUT THE CURVATURE OF THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK. THIS LEAVES AN ANALYSIS AT 1.5+
VALIDATING THE 25KT VALUES THAT CAN BE DETECTED BY THE 0301UTC
PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH, NOTABLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. WITH
CIRCULATION STILL FAIRLY WIDE, THE SYSTEM IS CLASSIFIED AS A AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER AT 06UTC.

THE SYSTEM'S TRACK IS FORECAST TO BE WESTERLY, GUIDED ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ON THE BASIN. THE
GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY WELL DEFINED, AS SHOWN BY THE CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. ON THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH
THE NORTH OF MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY, PASSING CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON
AND TROMELIN BY FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK IS FAIRLY
GOOD, IT SHOULD BE BORNE IN MIND THAT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
OVER THE LONGER TERM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECASTS, THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE QUITE
DISPARATE. WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR, AND DESPITE A RATHER
FAVORABLE CONTEXT AT OTHER POINTS (OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WEAKENING
SHEAR), THE SYSTEM IS FINDING IT HARD TO ORGANIZE ITSELF, MAINTAINING
A FAIRLY WIDE CIRCULATION. AS A RESULT, THE SYSTEM IS STRUGGLING TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. IT IS THEREFORE NECESSARY TO
WAIT FOR THE SYSTEM TO LEAVE THE ZONE OF DRY AIR SO THAT CONVECTION
CAN BE ORGANIZED, THEN ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY ON A MORE
REGULAR BASIS TO WAIT FOR THE MODERATE TROPICAL STORM THRESHOLD IN
THE NEXT 48H. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE STRONG TROPICAL
STORM STAGE BEFORE LANDING OVER MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE MAXIMUM INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM, AS THERE IS NO CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, WITH THE
CURRENT RSMC FORECAST OPTING FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN THAT OF MOST
MODELS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT BRANDON :
- GALE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M ON FRIDAY.
- RAINFALL LOCALLY UP TO 100MM IN 24H DURING THE EPISODE.
- IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 071204
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 3/5/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5

2.A POSITION 2025/01/07 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 78.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/08 00 UTC: 14.5 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 130 NW: 65

24H: 2025/01/08 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 230 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 75

36H: 2025/01/09 00 UTC: 15.0 S / 64.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 130 NW: 75

48H: 2025/01/09 12 UTC: 15.2 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 240 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 85

60H: 2025/01/10 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 58.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

72H: 2025/01/10 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 230 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/11 12 UTC: 14.9 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 100

120H: 2025/01/12 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 43.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER05-20242025 HAS REMAINED IN A CURVED BAND WITH A LESSER SPIRAL
BY HALF. CONVECTION BREATHES, LEAVING SLIGHTLY WARMER TOPS IN THE
LAST FEW MOMENTS. THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR THUS CONTINUES TO LIMIT
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND RESTRICT THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM.
FOR THE TIME BEING, A DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 2.0+ CAN BE MADE WITH A
LOCATION OF THE CENTER AIDED BY THE GCOM OF 0829UTC. AT 12UTC,
05-20242025 IS STILL A AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITH ESTIMATED WINDS
OF 30KT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK: IT IS FORECAST TO HEAD WEST,
GUIDED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED ON THE
BASIN. THE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY WELL DEFINED, AS SHOWN BY THE
CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. ON THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD LAND NORTH OF MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY, PASSING CLOSE TO
SAINT-BRANDON AND TROMELIN ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
TRACK IS FAIRLY GOOD, IT SHOULD BE KEPT IN MIND THAT UNCERTAINTY IN
THE FORECAST INCREASES OVER THE LONG TERM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECASTS, THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE QUITE
DISPARATE. WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR, AND DESPITE A RATHER
FAVORABLE CONTEXT ON THE OTHER POINTS (OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WEAKENING
SHEAR), THE SYSTEM IS FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO ORGANIZE ITSELF,
ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER
THE NEXT 12 HOURS. COMPARED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, CONVECTION
AND CIRCULATION WILL THEREFORE BE BETTER ORGANIZED, ENABLING THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY MORE REGULARLY AND REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, OR EVEN LESS. THEREAFTER, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE STRONG TROPICAL STORM STAGE BEFORE MAKING
LANDFALL OVER MADAGASCAR. HOWEVER, THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE MAXIMUM INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, AS THERE
IS NO CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, WITH THE CURRENT CMRS
FORECAST OPTING FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN THAT OF MOST MODELS.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT BRANDON :
- GALE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M ON FRIDAY.
- RAINFALL LOCALLY UP TO 100MM IN 24H DURING THE EPISODE.
- IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

TROMELIN:
- GALE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
- VERY HEAVY SEAS POSSIBLE WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
- RAINFALL LOCALLY UP TO 150MM IN 24H DURING THE EPISODE.
- IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.=

ygsj24

WTIO30 FMEE 071828
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/5/20242025
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 5

2.A POSITION 2025/01/07 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.3 S / 76.9 E
(FOURTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1004 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 220 SW: 220 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/08 06 UTC: 14.6 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 100 SW: 95 NW: 0

24H: 2025/01/08 18 UTC: 14.9 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 240 SW: 195 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 0

36H: 2025/01/09 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 64.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 215 SW: 205 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 150 SW: 85 NW: 0

48H: 2025/01/09 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 61.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 55 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 55
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 0

60H: 2025/01/10 06 UTC: 15.1 S / 58.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 185 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

72H: 2025/01/10 18 UTC: 15.0 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 260 SW: 205 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 65 NW: 0
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2025/01/11 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 49.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 230 SW: 240 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

120H: 2025/01/12 18 UTC: 15.1 S / 44.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 315 SW: 240 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 60 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CONVECTION REMAINS RELATIVELY POORLY
ORGANIZED AND IS STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN ITSELF. THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR
THEREFORE CONTINUES TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, THUS RESTRICTING THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE ASCAT PASS HAS MEASURED WINDS OF
25KT FAR FROM THE CENTER IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM. FOR THE
TIME BEING, 05-20242025 IS STILL AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER WITH
ESTIMATED WINDS OF 30KT.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF FORECAST TRACK: IT IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD, GUIDED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
CENTERED ON THE BASIN. THE GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY WELL DEFINED, AS
SHOWN BY THE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS. HOWEVER, IT
SHOULD MOVE SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN FORECAST IN PREVIOUS BULLETINS. ON
THIS TRACK, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LAND NORTH OF MADAGASCAR ON SATURDAY,
PASSING CLOSE TO SAINT-BRANDON AND TROMELIN ON FRIDAY. ON SUNDAY, IT
SHOULD EMERGE INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL ON A SOUTH-WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRAJECTORY IS FAIRLY GOOD, IT
SHOULD BE BORNE IN MIND THAT FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES OVER THE
LONGER TERM.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY FORECASTS, THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE QUITE DISPARATE.
WITH THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR, AND DESPITE A RATHER FAVORABLE CONTEXT
ON THE OTHER POINTS (OCEANIC POTENTIAL, WEAKENING SHEAR), THE SYSTEM IS
FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO ORGANIZE ITSELF, ALTHOUGH THE CIRCULATION WILL
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS. CONVECTION
AND CIRCULATION WILL THEREFORE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, ENABLING THE
SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY MORE REGULARLY AND REACH THE MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEN, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
REACH THE STAGE OF STRONG TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDING ON
MADAGASCAR. AS IT EXITS THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, IT COULD QUICKLY
RE-INTERSIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER, THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE MAXIMUM INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM, AS THERE
IS NO CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE VARIOUS MODELS, WITH THE CURRENT CMRS
FORECAST OPTING FOR A HIGHER INTENSITY THAN THAT OF MOST MODELS.

IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS :

SAINT BRANDON :
- GALE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY TO FRIDAY.
- VERY ROUGH SEAS POSSIBLE WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M ON FRIDAY.
- RAINFALL LOCALLY UP TO 100MM IN 24H DURING THE EPISODE.
- IMPROVEMENT DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

TROMELIN:
- GALE POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY.
- VERY HEAVY SEAS POSSIBLE WITH WAVES OF 4 TO 6M ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- RAINFALL LOCALLY UP TO 150MM IN 24H DURING THE EPISODE.
- IMPROVEMENT OVERNIGHT FRIDAY TO SATURDAY.