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To the east of 70E, a Near Equatorial Talweg (NET) pattern has formed a few days ago, with its axis
located between 1 and 4S. Convective activity remains moderate for the time being.
The vorticity and humid convergence within the TPE should be reinforced over the next few days
by the additional contribution of an equatorial Rossby wave and by the installation of the wet phase
of the MJO over the Indian Ocean in mid-August, thus providing an unusually favourable
atmospheric context unusually favorable to cyclogenesis for the heart of austral winter. In addition,
surface waters are unseasonably warm for the season north of 10S, with SST close to 29C around
5S/75E and 27C towards 10S.
Under these conditions, numerical models suggest the formation of a closed low-pressure
circulation over the next few days around 5S/75E, which could then deepen as it moves towards the
Chagos archipelago. This development could be hampered by the presence of a northeasterly shear
or sub-optimal low-level convergence. The GFS deterministic model has been simulating the
formation of a tropical storm at the end of the week, while the deterministic IFS remains less
reactive. A minority members of the GEFS and EPS ensemble models predict the formation of a
tropical storm at the end of this week or beginning of next week.
For the next 5 days, there is a low risk of tropical storm development near the Chagos
archipelago from Friday August 16th onwards.
Beyond the next 5 days, the risk of cyclogenesis may increase for the beginning of next week.
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楼主: 理可的呆萌呆毛
发表于 2024-8-13 04:13
发表于 2024-11-23 09:53
