黑德兰港以北热带低压10U&11U(10S) - 两个低压互旋融合，将沿西澳海岸西南行发展

yhh

实时云图

---

编扰资讯

91S INVEST 250116 0000 17.0S 123.5E SHEM 15 0
91S INVEST 250116 0000 16.8S 123.7E SHEM 15 1004

pocketbox

Tropical Low 10U
Tropical low forming to the north of the Pilbara coast.

• A tropical low (10U) is gradually forming over waters to the north of the Pilbara coast. It is likely to remain slow moving before taking a southwest track from late in the weekend.
• The potential for 10U to become a tropical cyclone is rated Moderate from Sunday.
• Another tropical low (11U) may form near the Kimberley from late Thursday. If that low were to develop and strengthen, the chances of 10U developing will decrease.
• No matter which low becomes dominant there is the potential for a system to move west or southwest over the weekend and early next week near the Pilbara coast and could develop further.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 11:54 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 am

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 pm

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 am

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 pm

Thu 23  Jan 12:00 am

Tropical Low 10U

1 (Very Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

25 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

35 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

45 (Moderate)

40 (Moderate)

30 (Moderate)

pocketbox

Tropical Low 11U
Tropical low (11U) may form off Kimberley coast over the weekend.

• A tropical low (11U) may form off the Kimberley coast later this week or over the weekend.
• The potential for 11U to become a tropical cyclone is rated Low from Friday onwards.
• Another tropical low (10U) is forming north of the west Pilbara coast, and that system is rated more likely to develop. If 10U does not end up developing then the ratings for 11U (this system) would increase.
• No matter which low becomes dominant there is the potential for a system to move west or southwest over the weekend and early next week near the Pilbara coast and could develop further.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 12:10 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 am

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 pm

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 am

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 pm

Thu 23  Jan 12:00 am

Tropical Low 11U

null (None)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

5 (Low)

pocketbox

ABIO10 PGTW 160130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/160130Z-161800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/151951ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15JAN25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 25.7S 42.3E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
EUROPA ISLAND, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT
85 KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 152100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 18.0S
112.4E, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 152220Z SSMIS 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT AN AREA OF CIRCULATION WITH A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LLCC WITH DEEP CYCLING CONVECTION PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. A 151427Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS INDICATES A
CONSOLIDATING CIRCULATION WITH STRONGER WINDS (20KTS) WRAPPING INTO
THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR (15-20KTS), MODERATE DIVERGENCE
ALOFT, BACKGROUND LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MONSOON TROUGH, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C). GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AND ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND POTENTIALLY
INTERACT WITH OR MERGE WITH A SEPARATE CIRCULATION IN THE VICINITY OF
BROOME, AUSTRALIA BEFORE ULTIMATELY TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD OFFSHORE OF
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 2.B(1).//
NNNN

pocketbox

Tropical Low 10U
Very Low risk of Tropical Low 10U developing into a tropical cyclone.

• A weak tropical low (10U) is over waters to the north of the Pilbara coast.
• Another tropical low (11U) is forming near the Kimberley and the two systems will interact, weakening tropical low 10U.
• By Saturday 10U is expected to dissipate, thus a Very Low risk of developing into a tropical cyclone.
• The risk of this low developing/forming has decreased and as such this disturbance will not appear on subsequent forecasts. The situation will continue to be monitored and updated here if required.
• For the risk of a tropical cyclone developing north of the Pilbara coast, refer to products associated with Tropical Low 11U.
  

Last updated
4 hours ago, 09:08 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 am

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 pm

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 am

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 pm

Thu 23  Jan 12:00 am

Thu 23  Jan 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 10U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

pocketbox

Tropical Low 11U
The risk of a tropical cyclone increases to high on Sunday.

• Tropical low (11U) is forming over the western Kimberley.
• The formation of 11U may be affected by tropical low (10U) however it is increasingly likely that the two systems will form into one broad low during Saturday.
• The potential for 11U to become a tropical cyclone increases to High during Sunday.
• There is a chance that gales may develop in offshore waters from the Pilbara coast as 11U intensifies during Sunday.
• People in the Pilbara should stay up to date with the latest information.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 09:00 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 18  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 19  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 20  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 am

Tue 21  Jan 12:00 pm

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 am

Wed 22  Jan 12:00 pm

Thu 23  Jan 12:00 am

Thu 23  Jan 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 11U

null (None)

null (None)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

35 (Moderate)

55 (High)

70 (High)

70 (High)

70 (High)

60 (High)

55 (High)

45 (Moderate)

25 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

理可的呆萌呆毛

西澳嘛
通常不是詐騙什麼都沒有就是高上限
900-大餅一年可以有幾次（說的GFS-FV3這個大更新之後的8XX)
但地形太容易讓擾動在陸地不斷磨了。。。

pocketbox

Tropical Low 11U
The risk of a tropical cyclone increases to high on Sunday.

• Tropical low (11U) is forming over the western Kimberley.
• The formation of 11U may be affected by tropical low (10U) however it is increasingly likely that the two systems will form into one broad low during Saturday.
• The potential for 11U to become a tropical cyclone increases to High during Sunday.
• There is a chance that gales may develop in offshore waters from the Pilbara coast as 11U intensifies during Sunday.
• People in the Pilbara should stay up to date with the latest information.
  

Last updated
3 hours ago, 12:39 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 11:00 pm

Tomorrow 11:00 am

Tomorrow 11:00 pm

Sun 19  Jan 11:00 am

Sun 19  Jan 11:00 pm

Mon 20  Jan 11:00 am

Mon 20  Jan 11:00 pm

Tue 21  Jan 11:00 am

Tue 21  Jan 11:00 pm

Wed 22  Jan 11:00 am

Wed 22  Jan 11:00 pm

Thu 23  Jan 11:00 am

Thu 23  Jan 11:00 pm

Fri 24  Jan 11:00 am

Tropical Low 11U

1 (Very Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

35 (Moderate)

55 (High)

70 (High)

70 (High)

70 (High)

60 (High)

55 (High)

45 (Moderate)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

null (None)

pocketbox

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

PRIORITY
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 2:47 pm WST on Friday 17 January 2025

Headline:
High risk of a tropical cyclone forming north of the Pilbara on Sunday.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
De Grey to Ningaloo.

Cancelled Zone
None.

A tropical low is likely to form north of the Pilbara coast during Saturday. The environment is highly favourable and the low has a high chance of developing into a tropical cyclone during Sunday. The developing low is expected to move on a westwards track and stay to the north of the Pilbara coast, eventually moving out into the Indian Ocean and away from the WA mainland early next week.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may develop about coastal and island communities between De Grey and Dampier from early Sunday as the low intensifies to the north of the coast.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may extend from Dampier to Exmouth overnight Sunday as the system moves further west.

As the cyclone moves north of the coast, a storm tide is expected between De Grey and Exmouth. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 pm AWST Friday 17 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

A map showing the track of the cyclone is available at: http://www.bom.gov.au/cyclone

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm January 17	tropical low	18.5S	121.5E	110
+6hr	8 pm January 17	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+12hr	2 am January 18	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+18hr	8 am January 18	tropical low	18.3S	118.9E	95
+24hr	2 pm January 18	tropical low	18.4S	118.5E	140
+36hr	2 am January 19	tropical low	18.8S	116.7E	130
+48hr	2 pm January 19	tropical low	19.5S	114.8E	145
+60hr	2 am January 20	2	20.2S	112.7E	175
+72hr	2 pm January 20	2	21.4S	110.4E	215

iam最小值

BOM罕见地在系统还没“形成”就开始发报了（A tropical low is likely to form …）。从云图上看10U和11U在一个大低压区范围里，环流对11U有利。数值预报也看好这点，BOM因此撤掉了对10U的展望，认为11U未来会命名。