马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

pocketbox

Tropical Low 08U
Weak tropical low over open waters well off Western Australian.

• A weak tropical low, 08U, lies near 14.7S 106.0E Wednesday afternoon, about 475 km south of Christmas Island, over open waters well offshore to the northwest of Western Australia.
• The system has faced challenges in development over the last 24 hours and needs more time to organize. The likelihood of it becoming a tropical cyclone remains Low from Saturday onwards.
• The low is expected to move to the west southwest, remaining over open waters of the Indian Ocean.
• The low will remain well away from the Australian mainland and offshore islands.
  

Last updated
4 hours ago, 09:03 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Fri 3  Jan 12:00 am

Fri 3  Jan 12:00 pm

Sat 4  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 4  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 5  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 5  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 6  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 6  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 7  Jan 12:00 am

Tue 7  Jan 12:00 pm

Wed 8  Jan 12:00 am

Wed 8  Jan 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 08U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

renzhetegong

ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/011800Z-
021800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.0S 108.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.5S 105.4E, APPROXIMATELY 517 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 0115147Z ASCAT PARTIAL PASS REVEALS A BELT OF
20-25 KNOT WESTERLY WINDS CURRENTLY SITTING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATELY FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-
30 KTS), MODERATE EASTERLY OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT ON SLOW DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
REMAINS MEDIUM.
...
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

pocketbox

Tropical Low 08U
Tropical low over open waters well off Western Australian will remain well away from islands.

• A tropical low, 08U, lies near 14.3S 103.6E Thursday morning, about 485 km south southwest of Christmas Island, over open waters well offshore to the northwest of Western Australia.
• The system will struggle to develop over the coming days and the likelihood of it becoming a tropical cyclone remains Low from Saturday onwards.
• The low is expected to move to the west southwest, remaining over open waters of the Indian Ocean.
• The low will remain well away from the Australian mainland and offshore islands.
  

Last updated
3 hours ago, 11:27 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 11:00 pm

Tomorrow 11:00 am

Tomorrow 11:00 pm

Sat 4  Jan 11:00 am

Sat 4  Jan 11:00 pm

Sun 5  Jan 11:00 am

Sun 5  Jan 11:00 pm

Mon 6  Jan 11:00 am

Mon 6  Jan 11:00 pm

Tue 7  Jan 11:00 am

Tue 7  Jan 11:00 pm

Wed 8  Jan 11:00 am

Wed 8  Jan 11:00 pm

Thu 9  Jan 11:00 am

Tropical Low 08U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

Leonardo

TPXS12 PGTW 020852

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (S OF JAVA)

B. 02/0830Z

C. 14.42S

D. 102.65E

E. THREE/GK2A

F. T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 19A/PBO XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES
WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF 1.5. MET
YIELDS 1.5 ON STEADY TREND. PT YIELDS 1.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   RAE

Leonardo

TXXS23 KNES 020621
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)

B.  02/0530Z

C.  14.6S

D.  102.8E

E.  THREE/HIMAWARI-9

F.  T1.5/1.5

G.  IR/EIR/VIS

H.  REMARKS...SYSTEM CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY-DEFINED CLOUD LINES
AND LLCC >1.25 DEG FM A LARGE COLD OVC RESULTING IN A DT OF 1.5. MDT-STG
ERLY SHEAR IMPACTING SYSTEM. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.5. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO
IRREG/PULSING CONVECTION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...KONON

=

Leonardo

一只布拉万

还是很有可能的

pocketbox

Tropical Low 08U
Tropical low over open waters well off Western Australian will remain well away from islands.

• A tropical low, 08U, lies near 14.6S 102.5E Thursday afternoon, about 580 km southwest of Christmas Island, over open waters well offshore to the northwest of Western Australia.
• The system will continue to have limited development over coming days and the likelihood of it becoming a tropical cyclone remains Low from later Saturday.
• The low is expected to move to the west southwest, remaining over open waters of the Indian Ocean.
• The low will remain well away from the Australian mainland and offshore islands.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 08:33 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sat 4  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 4  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 5  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 5  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 6  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 6  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 7  Jan 12:00 am

Tue 7  Jan 12:00 pm

Wed 8  Jan 12:00 am

Wed 8  Jan 12:00 pm

Thu 9  Jan 12:00 am

Thu 9  Jan 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 08U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

pocketbox

Tropical Low 08U
Indian Ocean Tropical low over open waters not expected to be a tropical cyclone in the Australian region.

• A tropical low, 08U, lies near 15S 99E on Friday afternoon, about 420 km southeast of Cocos Is, over open waters well away from Western Australia and moving further west.
• The low is not expected to develop significantly before it moves west of the Australian region (90E) by Sunday.
• The likelihood of it becoming a tropical cyclone is now Very Low in the Australian region.
  

Last updated
4 hours ago, 08:30 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Sun 5  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 5  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 6  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 6  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 7  Jan 12:00 am

Tue 7  Jan 12:00 pm

Wed 8  Jan 12:00 am

Wed 8  Jan 12:00 pm

Thu 9  Jan 12:00 am

Thu 9  Jan 12:00 pm

Fri 10  Jan 12:00 am

Fri 10  Jan 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 08U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

null (None)

Leonardo

ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/031800Z-
041800ZJAN2025//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.3S 101.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 96.9E, APPROXIMATELY 667 NM EAST
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM. A 031515Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH WEAKLY DEFINED BANDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(5-10KTS), MODERATE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND WARM SST (28C). GLOBAL
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE CONFIDENT THAT THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (94S) WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS OFF TOWARDS THE WEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS
ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.5S 58.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 61.4E, APPROXIMATELY 189 NM SOUTH OF
THE COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 031355Z
SSMIS F16 COMPOSITE DEPICT A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC
WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MODERATELY FAVORABLE FOR 92S WITH WARM (28-
29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN