马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

一只布拉万

W+OW，德法可以C4了，说实话马达加斯加以南W成环不容易

renzhetegong

TPXS12 PGTW 160318
A. HURRICANE 07S (DIKELEDI)
B. 16/0230Z
C. 27.98S
D. 43.88E
E. THREE/MET9
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS  STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A DT OF 6.0.
MET YIELDS A 5.0. PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS (FT
GREATER THAN 1.5 IN 12HRS) DUE TO RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   15/2151Z  26.70S  42.85E  AMS2
   16/0051Z  27.55S  43.50E  SSMS
   LINDGREN

桑美和伊欧凯

一只布拉万 发表于 2025-1-16 11:07
W+OW，德法可以C4了，说实话马达加斯加以南W成环不容易

马达加斯加南侧爆发，位置罕见

觀雲趣

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov ... cal.php?year=latest


有C3風力

pocketbox

WTIO30 FMEE 160626
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 38/5/20242025
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (DIKELEDI)

2.A POSITION 2025/01/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.9 S / 44.7 E
(TWENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 17 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/6.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 22 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 280 SW: 205 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 280 SE: 220 SW: 100 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 60 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 85 SE: 65 SW: 45 NW: 65

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1003 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2025/01/16 18 UTC: 31.6 S / 49.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 205 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

24H: 2025/01/17 06 UTC: 33.6 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 415 SE: 205 SW: 230 NW: 285
34 KT NE: 215 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 75 SW: 45 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2025/01/17 18 UTC: 34.6 S / 60.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 390 SE: 150 SW: 195 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 195 SE: 95 SW: 110 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 65 SW: 0 NW: 55

48H: 2025/01/18 06 UTC: 34.8 S / 68.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 345 SE: 165 SW: 205 NW: 315
34 KT NE: 165 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 165

60H: 2025/01/18 18 UTC: 34.8 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

72H: 2025/01/19 06 UTC: 34.8 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL


2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.5+ CI=6.0-

OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS, DIKEDELI HAS INITIALLY EXPERIENCED A PHASE OF
STRUCTURAL IMPROVEMENT, WITH A 3-HOUR AVERAGE EYE ANALYSIS OF 6.0,
BEFORE DROPPING SLIGHTLY TO 5.5+ AT AROUND 06UTC. IN ADDITION, A SAR
PASS AT 0230Z MEASURED MAXIMUM WINDS AT 100KT 1 MINUTE. DIKELEDI IS
THEREFORE ESTIMATED AT 95KT AT 06UTC.

CURRENTLY AT A LATITUDE OF 28.8S, DIKELEDI BECOMES THE MOST SOUTHERLY
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN OUR DATABASE, ECLIPSING ANGREEK'S RECORD
FROM LAST SEASON.

LITTLE CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK. THE SYSTEM IS DRIVEN IN THE SHORT
TERM BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A TROUGH CIRCULATING
FURTHER SOUTH, GENERATING A SOUTHWESTERLY SHIFT. FROM TONIGHT
ONWARDS, THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL THICKEN AND DIKELEDI WILL
CIRCULATE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THIS RIDGE, HEADING DUE EAST. THERE
IS LITTLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE SHAPE OF THE TRACK, BUT THERE IS SOME
DISPERSION BETWEEN THE DIFFERENT LEADERS IN TERMS OF SPEED.  THE RSMC
FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE FASTER IFS SCENARIO.
IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, DIKEDELI IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT, WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, LOW WIND SHEAR AND
HIGH OCEAN POTENTIAL. IT SHOULD THEREFORE REMAIN AN INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FROM TONIGHT ONWARDS, THE WESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE, ALLOWING INTRUSIONS OF DRY AIR
AROUND THE HEART OF THE SYSTEM. IN ADDITION, AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS, DIKEDELI SHOULD BEGIN TO LOSE ITS TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
FROM TOMORROW, WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN. DIKEDELI SHOULD REACH
EXTRATROPICAL LOW STATUS EARLY THIS WEEKEND.


IMPACTS ON INHABITED LAND :

SOUTHWEST MADAGASCAR (TOLIARA PROVINCE):
- HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS NEAR THE COAST,
WITH CUMULUS OF 100MM POSSIBLE. IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS THE END OF THE
DAY=

理可的呆萌呆毛

沒想到Anggrek這個耐凍王的最南ITC紀錄一年就破了。。。

pocketbox

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING NR 014   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 28.9S 44.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 28.9S 44.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 31.6S 48.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 33.5S 54.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 34.6S 60.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 34.8S 67.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 29.6S 45.8E.
16JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
470 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 160600Z IS 950 MB.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 48 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 160900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WARNING
   
4. NR 014//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 28.9S 44.7E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 100 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 470 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 48 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) AS A COMPACT SYSTEM WITH AN EVIDENT BUT
    
19. DETERIORATING EYE-FEATURE. WHILE INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN OBSERVED
    
20. OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WELL-DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS WRAPPED
    
21. AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION INTO THE
    
22. SOUTHERN QUADRANT AS THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE HAS BEGUN SHOWING
    
23. SIGNS OF INCREASED PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A TIGHTER
    
24. BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. ALOFT, STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW HAS
    
25. ALSO CONTINUED AS THE UPSTREAM LEG OF AN EQUATORWARD EXTENDING
    
26. LONGWAVE TROUGH HAS SUPPORTED INTENSIFICATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS
    
27. FORECAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
    
28. ON THE AFOREMENTIONED OBSERVABLE, YET INCREASINGLY RAGGED,
    
29. EYE-FEATURE ON ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH
    
30. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES AND A 160230Z
    
31. SENTINEL-1 SAR IMAGE.
    
32. 
    
33. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SAR DATA
    
34. 
    
35. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) DIRECTLY TO THE
    
36. EAST-SOUTHEAST.
    
37. 
    
38. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
39.    PGTW: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
40.    KNES: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
41.    DEMS: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
42.    FMEE: T5.5 - 102 KTS
    
43.    CIMSS ADT: 112 KTS AT 160630Z
    
44.    CIMSS AIDT: 115 KTS AT 160630Z
    
45.    CIMSS D-PRINT: 86 KTS AT 160630Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: FAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 10-15 KTS
    
49.    SST: 26-27 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
51. 
    
52. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
53.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
54.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
55.    INITIAL WIND RADII: HIGH
    
56. 
    
57. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
58. 
    
59. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: INTENSIFICATION OCCURRED OVER THE LAST
    
60. 12 HOURS DUE TO A CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL
    
61. INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 100 KTS.
    
62. 
    
63. FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) IS FORECASTED
    
64. TO CONTINUE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS AROUND THE
    
65. SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED
    
66. DIRECTLY TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. FOLLOWING TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS
    
67. EXPECTED TO TRACK EASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE
    
68. SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES UNTIL
    
69. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AT TAU 48. WITH REGARD TO INTENSITY, TC
    
70. 07S IS FORECASTED TO BEGIN ITS INITIAL WEAKENING PHASE OVER THE
    
71. NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEAST INTO COOLER
    
72. WATERS (LESS THAN 26 C), WITH EVENTUAL DISSIPATION DUE TO
    
73. BAROCLINIC TRANSITION. FROM THIS ANALYSIS, TC DIKELEDI IS EXPECTED
    
74. TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WITH SUSTAINED COOLER SEA SURFACE
    
75. TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED VWS ABOVE 20 KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
    
76. OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AT TAU 48. HOWEVER, STARTING AROUND TAU 24,
    
77. THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WITH INCREASED
    
78. INTERACTION WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE
    
79. BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY TAU 48, TC 07S IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE
    
80. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES COMPLETELY EMBEDDED
    
81. WITHIN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW YET SUSTAIN INTENSITIES OF 40
    
82. KTS AS A BAROCLINIC CYCLONE.
    
83. 
    
84. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE IN VERY
    
85. TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF JUST 107 NM BY THE END
    
86. OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK
    
87. FORECAST. THE JTWC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
    
88. MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE WEAKENING
    
89. PHASE OF TC 07S, WITH ALL MEMBERS INDICATING THE DECAY OF TC
    
90. DIKELEDI FROM TAU 0 TO TAU 48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ASSESSED
    
91. WITH MEDIUM CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE EXPECTED EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
    
92. PHASE BEGINNING AT TAU 24.
    
93. 
    
94. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
95.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
    
96.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM//
    
97. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：向纯怡  签发：张 玲  2025 年 01 月 16 日 18 时
“迪克莱迪”逐渐远离马达加斯加

时       间：16日14时（北京时）

海       域：南印度洋

命       名：“迪克莱迪”，DIKELEDI

中心位置：南纬28.9度、东经44.7度

强度等级：强热带气旋

最大风力：15级（48米/秒，相当于我国的强台风级）

中心气压：945百帕

参考位置：法属留尼旺西南方向约1400公里的洋面上

变化过程：过去小时，“迪克莱迪”由11级加强到15级

预报结论：“迪克莱迪”将以每小时40~45公里左右的速度向东南方向快速移动，强度逐渐减弱。16日夜间开始“迪克莱迪”对马达加斯加的影响趋于结束。

受其影响，16日20时到17日08时，马达加斯加以南部分海面的风力可达9~11级，“迪克莱迪”中心经过的附近海域风力可达12~15级。


图1 卫星红外监测图像（北京时间2025年01月16日14时00分）

桑美和伊欧凯

理可的呆萌呆毛 发表于 2025-1-16 15:15
沒想到Anggrek這個耐凍王的最南ITC紀錄一年就破了。。。

极限平西又极限平东，气候变暖的情况下什么都可能发生
澳洲名字佛雷迪因为给非洲带来重度灾害被除名就够夸张了，这还有个中纬度ITC

理可的呆萌呆毛

耐凍王現在手里紀錄還有個最南C4，看看Dikeledi12z能不能C4了（可惜巔峰不在發報點）