西澳以北四级强热带气旋“埃罗尔”(29U/29S.Errol) - 构建针眼，迅猛加强 - BoM:100KT JTWC:140KT

yhh

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WARNING NR 027   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 16.0S 123.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 123.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 16.2S 125.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 16.4S 126.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 124.3E.
18APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 150
NM NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 180600Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN

1. WDXS31 PGTW 180900
   
2. MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
   
3. SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WARNING NR
   
4. 027//
   
5. RMKS/
   
6. 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
   
7. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
   
8. 
   
9. SUMMARY:
   
10.    INITIAL POSITION: 16.0S 123.9E
    
11.    INITIAL INTENSITY: 40 KTS
    
12.    GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 150 NM NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA
    
13.    MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: EASTWARD AT 05 KTS
    
14.    SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 12 FEET
    
15. 
    
16. SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
    
17. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TROPICAL
    
18. CYCLONE 29S WITH AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
    
19. JUST OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEAST OF KOOLAN ISLAND. CONVECTION CONTINUES
    
20. TO BE HEAVILY SHEARED OFF TOWARD THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
    
21. INDICATES THAT 29S IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED
    
22. BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND VERY WARM (30-31 C) SEA SURFACE
    
23. TEMPERATURES GREATLY OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
    
24. AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE WEST. THE INITIAL
    
25. POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC
    
26. IN ANIMATED MSI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH
    
27. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 180047Z ASCAT PASS, THE FALLING
    
28. AGENCY DVORAK FIXES, AND THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE LISTED
    
29. BELOW.
    
30. 
    
31. INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: PERSISTENCE FROM THE 18OO47Z METOP-C
    
32. SCATTEROMETER DATA
    
33. 
    
34. CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: LONGWAVE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH OF THE
    
35. SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER WESTERLY FLOW.
    
36. 
    
37. AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
    
38.    PGTW: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
39.    KNES: T4.0 - 65 KTS
    
40.    DEMS: T3.5 - 55 KTS
    
41.    APRF: T2.5 - 35 KTS
    
42.    CIMSS ADT: 47 KTS AT 180610Z
    
43.    CIMSS AIDT: 55 KTS AT 180610Z
    
44.    CIMSS DPRINT: 31 KTS AT 180610Z
    
45.    CIMSS DMINT: 26 KTS AT 180526Z
    
46. 
    
47. FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: UNFAVORABLE
    
48.    VWS: 25-30 KTS
    
49.    SST: 30-31 CELSIUS
    
50.    OUTFLOW: STRONG POLEWARD
    
51.    OTHER FACTORS: LAND INTERACTION AND DRY AIR INTRUSION FROM THE
    
52. WEST
    
53. 
    
54. ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
    
55.    INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
    
56.    INITIAL INTENSITY: MEDIUM
    
57.    INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
    
58. 
    
59. 3. FORECAST REASONING.
    
60. 
    
61. SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THERE ARE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
    
62. THE FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
    
63. 
    
64. FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER MAKING A SOMEWHAT UNEXPECTED STALL OFF
    
65. THE COAST, 29S IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TRACKING INLAND OVER THE NEXT
    
66. 12-24 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL PARAMETERS WILL CONTINUE TO WORSEN AS THE
    
67. CIRCULATION MAKES LANDFALL, WITH SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40 KTS AND DRY
    
68. AIR ENTRAINMENT. A DROP TO BELOW 35 KTS IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT
    
69. 12 HOURS AS TERRAIN INTERACTION FURTHER AIDS IN THE EROSION OF THE
    
70. VORTEX. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS NO DEPICTION OF A RECURVE IN THE TRACK
    
71. OR REGENERATION POTENTIAL.
    
72. 
    
73. MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
    
74. AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED EASTWARD TO EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER
    
75. THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SOME MODELS BEGIN TO LOSE THE VORTEX AS SOON AS
    
76. TAU 12 THOUGH, LENDING ONLY MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
    
77. FORECAST. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN A CLOSE GROUPING, ALL SUGGESTING
    
78. FURTHER WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE JTWC
    
79. INTENSITY FORECAST IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
    
80. WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
    
81. 
    
82. FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
    
83.    TRACK 0 - 72 HR: MEDIUM
    
84.    INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH//
    
85. NNNN

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pocketbox

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：翟丽萍  签发：董林  2025 年 04 月 18 日 18 时
“埃罗尔”已登陆澳大利亚西北部沿岸

时        间:    18日14时（北京时）

海        域:    澳大利亚附近海域

命        名:    “埃罗尔”，ERROL

中心位置:    东经124.4度, 南纬15.8度

强度等级:    一级热带气旋

最大风力:    8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级

中心气压:    1000百帕

参考位置:    澳大利亚西澳大利亚州德比东北方向185公里沿岸

变化过程:    过去24小时，“埃罗尔”强度快速减弱

预报结论:    “埃罗尔”已于今天下午14时左右登陆库利湾以南沿岸（8级，18米/秒，相当于我国的热带风暴级）， “埃罗尔”将以每小时20公里左右的速度向东南方向移动，强度逐渐减弱。



图1 卫星可见光监测图像（北京时间2025年4月18日14时00分）

ygsj24

WTAU05 APRF 181228
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:16S125E400:11:00
SECURITE
CANCELLATION

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 1228 UTC 18 APRIL 2025

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 1200 UTC Ex-Tropical Cyclone Errol was centred over land within 45 nautical
miles of
latitude sixteen decimal two south (16.2S)
longitude one hundred and twenty four decimal eight east (124.8E)
Recent movement : east southeast at 6 knots
Maximum winds   : 25 knots
Central pressure: 1000 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Nil.

FORECAST
Gales are no longer expected.

No further warnings will be issued for this system.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE




Headline:
Ex-Tropical Cyclone Errol weakening further after crossing the coast south of Kuri Bay. Heavy rainfall continuing over central parts of the Kimberley.


Areas affected:
Warning zone: None.

Watch zone: None.

Cancelled zones: None.


Details of Ex-Tropical Cyclone Errol 29U at 8:00 pm AWST:
Intensity: tropical low, sustained winds near the centre of 45 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 75 kilometres per hour.
Location: within 85 kilometres of 16.2 degrees South, 124.8 degrees East , 85 kilometres south southeast of Kuri Bay and 175 kilometres northeast of Derby .
Movement: east southeast at 12 kilometres per hour .

Ex-Tropical Cyclone Errol is weakening further after it crossed the coast just south of Kuri Bay. Heavy rainfall has contracted into central parts of the Kimberley, well to the east of ex-Tropical Cyclone Errol.


Hazards:
A Severe Weather Warning for Heavy Rainfall remains current for central parts of the Kimberley, but is no longer linked to the remnant circulation of ex-Tropical Cyclone Errol. For details see bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/


Details:

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 pm April 18	tropical low	16.2S	124.8E	85
+6hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+12hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+18hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+24hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+36hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+48hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+60hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX
+72hr	XXX	tropical low	XXX	XXX	XXX

Tropical Cyclone information is also available in MetEye


Next Issue
There will be no further Forecast Track Maps issued for this system.

yhh

WTXS31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL) WARNING NR 028   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 124.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 124.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190000Z --- 16.1S 125.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 124.8E.
18APR25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 29S (ERROL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 174
NM NORTHEAST OF BROOME, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAGGED, REMNANT VORTEX TRACKING INLAND. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS ANALYZED TO BE HIGHLY UNFAVORABLE WITH STRONG
(25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR INTRUSION, AND
TERRAIN INTERACTION. 29S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING AS IT
TRACKS FURTHER INLAND, AND NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THE
FORECAST WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 181200Z IS 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181200Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

ygsj24

全球热带气旋监测公报
预报：吕心艳  签发：张 玲  2025 年 04 月 19 日 10 时

“埃罗尔”减弱为热带低压

“埃罗尔”已于昨天（18日）夜间（北京时）在澳大利亚西澳大利亚州北部减弱为热带低压，中央气象台停止对其监视。

（这是关于“埃罗尔”的最后一期监测公报）