西澳西北热带低压10U(99S→90S) - 18.3S 112.1E

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-1-18 06:00

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 4
Issued at 5:53 am WST on Saturday 18 January 2025

Headline:
A tropical low (11U) forecast to develop to a tropical cyclone Sunday, with gale-force winds along the Pilbara coast.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
De Grey to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.

Watch Zone
Mardie to Ningaloo, including Onslow and Exmouth.

Cancelled Zone
None.

A tropical low north of the Pilbara coast is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday. The developing low is expected to move on a general westward track, parallel to the Pilbara coast today and on Sunday. From Monday the cyclone is expected to be moving southwest and away from the WA coast.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may develop about coastal and island communities between De Grey and Dampier including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier from early Sunday morning extending west to Mardie later Sunday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may extend from Mardie to Exmouth later on Sunday and to Ningaloo early Monday as the system moves further west.

As the system moves westwards, parallel to north WA coast during the weekend, a storm tide is expected between De Grey and Exmouth during Sunday and Monday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 9:00 am AWST Saturday 18 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	5 am January 18	tropical low	19.4S	119.5E	55
+6hr	11 am January 18	tropical low	19.2S	118.7E	85
+12hr	5 pm January 18	tropical low	18.9S	117.9E	100
+18hr	11 pm January 18	tropical low	18.9S	117.3E	110
+24hr	5 am January 19	tropical low	18.9S	116.3E	115
+36hr	5 pm January 19	1	19.7S	114.4E	120
+48hr	5 am January 20	2	20.5S	112.1E	135
+60hr	5 pm January 20	3	21.7S	110.0E	155
+72hr	5 am January 21	3	22.9S	107.8E	175

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-1-18 07:15

WTXS21 PGTW 172230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.6S 119.8E TO 21.2S 113.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 172230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2S 119.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 19.2S
119.5E IS NOW LOCATED 19.2S 119.9E, APPROXIMATELY 371 NM EAST-NORTHEAST
OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 171916Z
SSMIS F18 91GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED CLOUD BANDS FROM
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WRAPPING INTO A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC JUST OFF
THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA, WITH CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER AND JUST
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 90S IS IN A
CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM (30-32C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
182230Z.//
NNNN

ABIO10 PGTW 172300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/172300Z-181800ZJAN2025//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/171951ZJAN2025//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172221ZJAN2025//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
   (1) AT 17JAN25 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 35.0S 61.9E, APPROXIMATELY 927 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS,
MAURITIUS, AND HAD TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 33 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 45 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 55 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 172100) FOR THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM.
   (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
   (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
19.2S 119.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2S 119.9E, APPROXIMATELY 371 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
AN 171916Z SSMIS F18 91GHZ MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT CURVED CLOUD
BANDS FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WRAPPING INTO A QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LLCC
JUST OFF THE COAST OF AUSTRALIA, WITH CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE CENTER
AND JUST NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 90S
IS IN A CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DUE TO VERY WARM
(30-32C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 90S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND TRACK TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 172230) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
   (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-1-18 08:41

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-1-18 08:50 编辑

WTAU05 APRF 180040
IDW23100

40:2:2:24:19S119E400:11:00
SECURITE

OCEAN WIND WARNING FOR METAREA 10
Issued by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre
at 0040 UTC 18 JANUARY 2025

GALE WARNING

Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the
averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height.

SITUATION
At 0000 UTC a Tropical Low was centred within 25 nautical miles of
latitude nineteen decimal three south (19.3S)
longitude one hundred and nineteen decimal two east (119.2E)
Recent movement : west southwest at 8 knots
Maximum winds : 30 knots
Central pressure: 994 hPa

AREA AFFECTED
Within 130 nautical miles in SE quadrant
  and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant

FORECAST
Maximum winds to 30 knots near the centre increasing to 40 knots by 0000 UTC 19
January.

From 1800 UTC 18 January winds above 34 knots within 130 nautical miles in SE
quadrant
  and within 100 nautical miles in SW quadrant with rough seas and moderate
swell.

Forecast positions
At 1200 UTC 18 January: Within 45 nautical miles of 18.9 south 117.7 east
                     Central pressure 996 hPa.
                     Winds to 30 knots near centre.
At 0000 UTC 19 January: Within 60 nautical miles of 19.1 south 116.0 east
                     Central pressure 988 hPa.
                     Winds to 40 knots near centre.

REMARKS
All ships in the area please send weather reports every three hours.
Regular weather observing ships use normal channels.
Other ships please use email to tcwc@bom.gov.au.

Next warning will be issued by 0700 UTC 18 January 2025.

AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	8 am January 18	tropical low	19.3S	119.2E	45
+6hr	2 pm January 18	tropical low	19.1S	118.4E	70
+12hr	8 pm January 18	tropical low	18.9S	117.7E	85
+18hr	2 am January 19	tropical low	18.9S	116.9E	105
+24hr	8 am January 19	tropical low	19.1S	116.0E	115
+36hr	8 pm January 19	1	19.9S	114.0E	115
+48hr	8 am January 20	2	20.8S	111.7E	140
+60hr	8 pm January 20	3	22.0S	109.6E	165
+72hr	8 am January 21	3	23.2S	107.5E	180

ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-1-18 09:51

本帖最后由 ygsj24 于 2025-1-18 11:15 编辑

WTXS32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172221ZJAN2025//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180000Z --- NEAR 19.3S 119.1E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 119.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.3S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 19.7S 116.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 20.4S 114.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 21.3S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 23.6S 108.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 25.8S 105.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 27.6S 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3S 118.9E.
18JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
180000Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S (DIKELEDI) FINAL WARNING
(WTXS31 PGTW).//
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 172230).//
NNNN

WDXS32 PGTW 180300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR
001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUMMARY:
INITIAL POSITION: 19.3S 119.1E
INITIAL INTENSITY: 35 KTS
GEOGRAPHIC REFERENCE: 66 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND,
AUSTRALIA
MOVEMENT PAST 6 HOURS: WESTWARD AT 08 KTS
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT: 14 FEET
SATELLITE ANALYSIS, INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY DISCUSSION:
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING AND WRAPPING INTO AN
OBSCURED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. TC
10S IS DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF TWO CIRCULATIONS MERGING TOGETHER,
RESULTING IN A BROAD SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
35 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON NEARBY AUTOMATED
OBSERVATIONS FROM THE BEDOUT ISLAND REPORTING 30-33 KNOT WIND SPEEDS.
INITIAL WIND RADII BASIS: SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
CURRENT STEERING MECHANISM: SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST
AGENCY DVORAK AND AUTOMATED FIXES:
PGTW: T2.0 - 30 KTS
KNES: T1.5 - 25 KTS
FORECASTER ASSESSMENT OF CURRENT ENVIRONMENT: HIGHLY FAVORABLE
VWS: 0-5 KTS
SST: 29-30 CELSIUS
OUTFLOW: MODERATE RADIAL
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE:
INITIAL POSITION: HIGH
INITIAL INTENSITY: HIGH
INITIAL WIND RADII: MEDIUM
3. FORECAST REASONING.
SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES: THIS INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING
MESSAGE ESTABLISHES THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
FORECAST DISCUSSION: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S IS FORECAST TO PROCEED ON
A WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AFTER WHICH IT WILL BEGIN
TO ROUND THE AXIS OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST, LEADING TO A TRACK
ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AUSTRALIAN COAST. PAST TAU 48 THE SYSTEM
WILL SLOWLY START TURNING LEFT, WHILE STILL HEADING IN A
SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS, WITH HIGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (27-30 DEGREES CELSIUS), LOW AND VARIABLE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, HIGH ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN MOISTURE CONTENT, AS WELL AS
SUPPORTIVE DIVERGENCE ALOFT. SUCH SETTING IS REFLECTED BY A
SIGNIFICANT POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI) WITHIN THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AS ALSO INDICATED BY NUMEROUS RI INTENSITY AIDS. 10S
IS ASSESSED TO REACH PEAK INTENSITY 90 KTS, WITH A POTENTIAL OF
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION BETWEEN TAUS 48 AND 60. AFTER TAU 60, TC
10S WILL START DEPARTING FROM THE AREA OF FAVORABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO
RAPIDLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (DOWN TO
23-24 DEGREES CELSIUS), INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AS WELL AS
PROGRESSING DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. AS THE SYSTEM GETS CLOSER TO TAU
96, IT WILL QUICKLY BEGIN DETERIORATING.
MODEL DISCUSSION: NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
TERMS OF TRACK, WITH JUST 90 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 72 AND
ALL GUIDANCE CONSISTENT WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK, ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. JTWC
TRACK IS LAID IN A CLOSE PROXIMITY AND SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE ALSO REMAINS FAIRLY
CONSISTENT WITH NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE INDICATING RAPID
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WITH JUST DETERMINISTIC GFS
BEING THE OUTLIER PROJECTING A SHALLOWER GRADE OF INTENSIFICATION.
AFTER TAU 60, ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES A STEADY WEAKENING
TREND LEADING A EVENTUAL DISSIPATION AT THE END OR JUST BEYOND THE
END OF THE CURRENT FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
TRACK 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
TRACK 72-120 HR: MEDIUM
INTENSITY 0 - 72 HR: HIGH
INTENSITY 72-120 HR: MEDIUM//
NNNN

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ygsj24 · 发表于 2025-1-18 12:00

IDW24100

Australian Bureau of Meteorology
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: The Standard Emergency Warning Signal should NOT be used with this warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued at 11:48 am WST on Saturday 18 January 2025

Headline:
Gale-force winds expected along the Pilbara coast as tropical cyclone develops.

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
De Grey to Mardie, including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier.

Watch Zone
Mardie to Ningaloo, including Onslow and Exmouth.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low 11U at 11:00 am AWST:
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 55 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 95 kilometres of 18.9 degrees South 118.7 degrees East, estimated to be 155 kilometres north of Port Hedland and 280 kilometres northeast of Karratha.

Movement: west at 15 kilometres per hour.

A tropical low north of the Pilbara coast is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone on Sunday. The developing low is expected to move west, parallel to the Pilbara coast today and on Sunday. From Monday, the cyclone is expected to be moving southwest and away from the WA coast.

Hazards:
GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may develop about coastal and island communities between De Grey and Dampier including Port Hedland, Karratha and Dampier from early Sunday morning extending west to Mardie later Sunday morning.

GALES with DAMAGING WIND GUSTS may extend from Mardie to Exmouth later on Sunday and to Ningaloo early Monday as the system moves further west.

As the system moves westwards, parallel to north WA coast during the weekend, a storm tide is expected between De Grey and Exmouth during Sunday and Monday. Large waves may produce minor flooding along the foreshore. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to help their neighbours.

Recommended Action:
Ensure you know what to do in a cyclone. For the latest DFES community alerts and warnings visit emergency.wa.gov.au or download the Emergency WA app.

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 3:00 pm AWST Saturday 18 January.

Cyclone advices and DFES Alerts are available by dialling 13 DFES (13 3337)

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	11 am January 18	tropical low	18.9S	118.7E	95
+6hr	5 pm January 18	tropical low	18.9S	118.1E	100
+12hr	11 pm January 18	tropical low	19.0S	117.5E	85
+18hr	5 am January 19	tropical low	19.1S	116.6E	90
+24hr	11 am January 19	tropical low	19.5S	115.6E	90
+36hr	11 pm January 19	2	20.3S	113.4E	110
+48hr	11 am January 20	2	21.4S	111.2E	140
+60hr	11 pm January 20	3	22.7S	109.2E	160
+72hr	11 am January 21	3	23.9S	107.3E	180

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-1-18 14:55

本帖最后由 pocketbox 于 2025-1-17 23:40 编辑

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0710 UTC 18/01/2025
Name: Tropical Low
Identifier: 11U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.0S
Longitude: 118.2E
Location Accuracy: within 50nm (95 km)
Movement Towards: west (273 deg)
Speed of Movement: 9 knots (16 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots (55 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots (85 km/h)
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 40 nm (75 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.0/2.0 STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1000 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 200 nm (370 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
(UTC)       : degrees    :    nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  18/1200: 19.0S 117.6E:    060 (105):  030  (055):  995
+12:  18/1800: 19.1S 116.8E:    050 (090):  035  (065):  994
+18:  19/0000: 19.4S 115.9E:    050 (090):  040  (075):  988
+24:  19/0600: 19.8S 114.9E:    050 (095):  045  (085):  986
+36:  19/1800: 20.6S 112.6E:    065 (115):  055  (100):  982
+48:  20/0600: 21.8S 110.5E:    075 (145):  065  (120):  972
+60:  20/1800: 23.1S 108.5E:    090 (165):  070  (130):  966
+72:  21/0600: 24.3S 106.7E:    100 (185):  065  (120):  967
+96:  22/0600: 26.1S 104.4E:    140 (255):  045  (085):  982
+120: 23/0600: 27.9S 102.5E:    215 (395):  035  (065):  987
REMARKS:
Tropical Low 11U continues to show signs of development with curved banding
starting to improve.

The low level centre of this system likely remains elongated with possible
multiple centres due to interactions over the last 24 hours with weakening
tropical low 10U. Scatterometry at 0148 UTC (ASCAT-C) and 0330 UTC (Oceansat-3)
showed elongated centres as far north as 18.7S. However, over the last hour
radar and visible imagery suggest a more defined low level centre as far south
as 19.2S. No recent microwave passes available. The centre was biased towards
scatterometry with a uncertainty of 50 nm. The system has started to take a
more west southwest movement over the last 3 hours.

Intensity: 30 kn based on scatterometry and observations at Bedout Island.
Dvorak DT2.5, based on a 0.5 wrap on small tighter band on the southern side of
the system. MET and PAT not possible (no 24 trend available). CI/FT2.0 based on
DT with FT constraints. Objective aids all started around 0000 UTC and are ADT
39 kn, AiDT 36 kn, DPrint 33 kn (all 1 min mean).

There is good model consensus the system will track to the west southwest over
the weekend, parallel and offshore of the Pilbara coast, under the influence of
a strong mid level ridge. It is likely to be well off the Northwest Cape of
Western Australia on Monday before it starts to track to the southwest,
remaining well offshore of the mainland. The system is in a very favourable
environment for development lying under the upper ridge with low shear (CIMSS
10 kn at 0000 UTC 18 January), good upper divergence in all sectors and a moist
environment. Sea surfaces temperatures are exceptionally high north of the
Pilbara at 31 degrees. The system is expected to develop further possibly
reaching tropical cyclone strength on Sunday and category 3 by Monday.
Potential rapid intensification could occur during Sunday.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 18/1330 UTC.

	Time (AWST)	Intensity Category	Latitude (decimal deg.)	Longitude (decimal deg.)	Estimated Position Accuracy (km)
0hr	2 pm January 18	tropical low	19.0S	118.2E	95
+6hr	8 pm January 18	tropical low	19.0S	117.6E	105
+12hr	2 am January 19	tropical low	19.1S	116.8E	90
+18hr	8 am January 19	tropical low	19.4S	115.9E	90
+24hr	2 pm January 19	tropical low	19.8S	114.9E	95
+36hr	2 am January 20	2	20.6S	112.6E	115
+48hr	2 pm January 20	3	21.8S	110.5E	145
+60hr	2 am January 21	3	23.1S	108.5E	165
+72hr	2 pm January 21	3	24.3S	106.7E	185

pocketbox · 发表于 2025-1-18 15:45

WTXS32 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 19.3S 118.1E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
   SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3S 118.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 19.5S 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 20.1S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 20.9S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 21.9S 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 24.0S 107.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 26.0S 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 28.0S 103.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 117.8E.
18JAN25. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (TEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 66 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT
180600Z IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS
14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.//
NNNN

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西澳西北热带低压10U(99S→90S) - 18.3S 112.1E

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