马达加斯加以南强热带气旋第5号“迪克莱迪”(08U/07S.Dikeledi) - 有记载以来纬度最南的ITC，12日登陆马达加斯加北部，13日登陆莫桑比克 - JTWC:100KT

ygsj24

实时云图

---

编扰资讯

94S INVEST 241230 0000 13.5S 109.8E SHEM 15 1009

pocketbox

Tropical Low 08U
Tropical low forming well offshore to the northwest of WA

• A tropical low, 08U, is forming over open waters well offshore to the northwest of Western Australia.
• There is a Low likelihood of the system reaching tropical cyclone intensity from Thursday onwards.
• The low is expected to move to the west southwest, remaining over open waters of the Indian Ocean.
• The low will remain well away from the Australian mainland and offshore islands. Christmas Island may experience increased shower activity over the next 24-36 hours.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 08:33 am UTC

Tropical lows

Today 11:00 pm

Tomorrow 11:00 am

Tomorrow 11:00 pm

Wed 1  Jan 11:00 am

Wed 1  Jan 11:00 pm

Thu 2  Jan 11:00 am

Thu 2  Jan 11:00 pm

Fri 3  Jan 11:00 am

Fri 3  Jan 11:00 pm

Sat 4  Jan 11:00 am

Sat 4  Jan 11:00 pm

Sun 5  Jan 11:00 am

Sun 5  Jan 11:00 pm

Mon 6  Jan 11:00 am

Mon 6  Jan 11:00 pm

Tropical Low 08U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

pocketbox

ABIO10 PGTW 301330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/301330Z-301800ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 12.5S
110.0E, APPROXIMATELY 282 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AS WELL AS A 300600Z AMSR2 36 GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS INDICATE AN AREA OF BROAD CIRCULATION AND FLARING
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF A DISORGANIZED AND ELONGATED LLCC.
EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA DEPICTED A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15-20 KNOTS
WINDS AROUND TWO-THIRDS OF THE OVERALL ROTATION, AND LIGHTER WINDS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN SECTION OF THE CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS OF THE
AREA INDICATES MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE WIND SHEAR (15-20KTS) TO THE NORTH, AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW
OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C). GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC
MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1).//
NNNN

pocketbox

ABIO10 PGTW 310000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
REISSUED/310000ZDEC2024-311800ZDEC2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.0S 109.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.6S 109.8E, APPROXIMATELY 252 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHRISTMAS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) INDICATE A CONSOLIDATING LLCC EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERN
PORTION OF PERSISTENT FLARING CONVECTION. SCATEROMETER DATA DEPICTS A
MORE SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATELY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20 KTS), STRONG UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) CONDUCIVE TO
FUTURE TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE
INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT IN SLOW AND STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE
IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
NNNN

pocketbox

Tropical Low 08U
Tropical low forming well offshore to the northwest of WA

• A tropical low, 08U, is forming over open waters well offshore to the northwest of Western Australia.
• There is a Low likelihood of the system reaching tropical cyclone intensity from Thursday onwards.
• The low is expected to move to the west southwest, remaining over open waters of the Indian Ocean.
• The low will remain well away from the Australian mainland and offshore islands. Christmas Island may experience increased shower activity during Tuesday.
  

Last updated
an hour ago, 11:38 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 12:00 pm

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Thu 2  Jan 12:00 am

Thu 2  Jan 12:00 pm

Fri 3  Jan 12:00 am

Fri 3  Jan 12:00 pm

Sat 4  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 4  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 5  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 5  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 6  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 6  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 7  Jan 12:00 am

Tropical Low 08U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

pocketbox

Tropical Low 08U
Tropical low to develop slowly over open waters well away from Western Australian and Indian Ocean Islands.

• Tropical Low, 08U, lies near 13.2S 108.8E, about 460km southeast of Christmas Island, over open waters well offshore to the northwest of Western Australia.
• The system is expected to develop slowly over coming days and there is a Low likelihood of the system reaching tropical cyclone intensity from Thursday onwards.
• The low is expected to move to the west southwest, remaining over open waters of the Indian Ocean.
• The low will remain well away from the Australian mainland and offshore islands.
  

Last updated
5 hours ago, 08:28 am UTC

Tropical lows

Tomorrow 12:00 am

Tomorrow 12:00 pm

Thu 2  Jan 12:00 am

Thu 2  Jan 12:00 pm

Fri 3  Jan 12:00 am

Fri 3  Jan 12:00 pm

Sat 4  Jan 12:00 am

Sat 4  Jan 12:00 pm

Sun 5  Jan 12:00 am

Sun 5  Jan 12:00 pm

Mon 6  Jan 12:00 am

Mon 6  Jan 12:00 pm

Tue 7  Jan 12:00 am

Tue 7  Jan 12:00 pm

Tropical Low 08U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

Leonardo

TPXS12 PGTW 311449

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 94S (S OF JAVA)

B. 31/1430Z

C. 13.75S

D. 109.43E

E. FIVE/GK2A

F. T1.5/2.0/S0.0/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO PRLY ORGNZD LLCC/ANMTN. LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES WITH COLD OVERCAST GREATER THAN 90NM ACROSS YIELD A DT OF
1.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   31/1052Z  11.95S  109.05E  SSMS
   31/1112Z  11.97S  108.92E  SSMS


   SWANSON

Leonardo

TXXS23 KNES 311227
TCSSIO

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (94S)

B.  31/1130Z

C.  13.0S

D.  109.1E

E.  FIVE/HIMAWARI-9

F.  T1.5/2.0

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR

H.  REMARKS...LOOSELY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER LOCATED LESS
THAN 1.25 DEGREE FROM THE VERY SMALL COLD CONVECTION RESULTS IN A DT
OF 1.0. THE MET IS 1.0. THE PT IS 1.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE PT DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE EXACT CENTER POSITION.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    NIL


...BERTALAN

=

Leonardo

pocketbox

Tropical Low 08U
Tropical low developing slowly over open waters well off Western Australian.

• A tropical low, 08U, lies near 13.6S 108.1E, about 440km southeast of Christmas Island, over open waters well offshore to the northwest of Western Australia.
• The system is expected to develop slowly over coming days and there is a Low likelihood of the system reaching tropical cyclone intensity from Thursday onwards.
• The low is expected to move to the west southwest, remaining over open waters of the Indian Ocean.
• The low will remain well away from the Australian mainland and offshore islands.
  

Last updated
2 hours ago, 11:24 pm UTC

Tropical lows

Today 11:00 pm

Tomorrow 11:00 am

Tomorrow 11:00 pm

Fri 3  Jan 11:00 am

Fri 3  Jan 11:00 pm

Sat 4  Jan 11:00 am

Sat 4  Jan 11:00 pm

Sun 5  Jan 11:00 am

Sun 5  Jan 11:00 pm

Mon 6  Jan 11:00 am

Mon 6  Jan 11:00 pm

Tue 7  Jan 11:00 am

Tue 7  Jan 11:00 pm

Wed 8  Jan 11:00 am

Tropical Low 08U

1 (Very Low)

1 (Very Low)

5 (Low)

5 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

15 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)

10 (Low)